Franyer Noria — OGILVIE

Franyer NoriaSS FCL Red Sox

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 135 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .286 / .296

PA64

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.1M
Totals		$8M		$20M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	114	103	19	3	1	0	9	38	1	9	0	184	257	233	490	49	292	33	8	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	114	97	29	5	2	0	15	24	1	9	0	299	398	392	790	93	397	21	13	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	137	25	6	1	0	8	22	7	6	4	182	263	241	504	58	216	14	5	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	131	29	7	1	0	14	15	7	6	4	221	329	290	619	69	248	10	9	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	112	90	20	1	1	0	14	30	7	11	3	222	369	256	625	33	328	27	12	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	112	83	23	1	1	0	21	22	7	11	3	277	459	313	773	36	371	20	19	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	65	55	7	2	0	0	6	8	3	5	1	127	250	164	414	36	146	12	9	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	65	52	9	3	0	0	9	5	3	5	1	173	328	231	559	58	188	8	14	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	BOS	—	64	58	12	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	207	281	293	574	86	284	25	8	269	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BOS	34%	149	134	30	5	1	2	11	36	3	3	1	224	297	321	618	97	286	24	7	281	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2028	23	MLB	BOS	48%	275	247	57	10	2	5	21	66	5	5	1	231	304	348	652	117	288	24	8	289	79	-6	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.5
2029	24	MLB	BOS	53%	365	328	75	13	2	7	28	87	6	7	2	229	301	345	646	116	289	24	8	295	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2030	25	MLB	BOS	55%	420	377	88	15	3	9	33	99	7	8	2	233	307	361	668	127	289	24	8	298	86	-7	+1	+0	+4	+12	1.1
2031	26	MLB	BOS	56%	453	406	94	16	3	10	36	107	8	8	2	232	307	360	666	128	289	24	8	300	88	-6	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.2
2032	27	MLB	BOS	55%	469	421	98	17	3	10	37	111	8	9	2	233	307	359	666	126	289	24	8	300	88	-6	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.3
2033	28	MLB	BOS	55%	474	425	98	17	3	10	38	113	8	8	2	231	306	355	661	125	289	24	8	299	87	-7	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.2
2034	29	MLB	BOS	53%	471	422	97	17	3	10	38	113	8	8	2	230	306	355	661	126	288	24	8	297	86	-8	+1	-1	+5	+13	1.0
2035	30	MLB	BOS	53%	464	415	94	16	3	9	38	113	8	7	2	227	304	345	648	118	287	24	8	295	84	-8	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.8
2036	31	MLB	BOS	52%	453	406	92	16	3	9	37	111	7	6	1	227	302	347	650	121	285	25	8	291	81	-10	+1	-3	+5	+13	0.6
2037	32	MLB	BOS	52%	436	391	86	15	2	8	35	109	7	5	1	220	296	330	626	110	282	25	8	286	77	-11	+1	-4	+5	+12	0.3
2038	33	MLB	BOS	56%	408	366	79	13	2	7	33	104	6	3	1	216	291	320	611	104	279	25	8	279	72	-13	+0	-4	+4	+12	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	BOS	34%	51	46	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	217	294	326	620	109	292	24	8	272	66	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	23	MLB	BOS	48%	133	120	28	5	1	2	10	32	2	2	1	233	303	342	645	108	294	24	8	281	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB	BOS	53%	192	172	40	7	1	4	15	46	3	4	1	233	305	355	660	122	295	24	8	287	77	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2030	25	MLB	BOS	55%	230	206	49	9	1	5	18	54	4	4	1	238	311	364	675	126	295	23	8	290	80	-5	+0	+0	+2	+7	0.4
2031	26	MLB	BOS	56%	252	226	55	10	2	6	20	60	4	5	1	243	316	385	701	142	295	24	8	292	82	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2032	27	MLB	BOS	55%	258	231	56	10	2	6	21	61	4	5	1	242	316	381	697	139	295	24	8	292	82	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2033	28	MLB	BOS	55%	259	232	55	10	1	6	21	62	4	5	1	237	311	366	678	129	295	24	8	291	81	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.5
2034	29	MLB	BOS	53%	251	225	51	9	1	5	20	60	4	4	1	227	301	342	643	116	294	24	8	290	80	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2035	30	MLB	BOS	53%	244	218	50	9	1	5	20	59	4	4	1	229	306	349	654	119	293	24	8	287	78	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2036	31	MLB	BOS	52%	236	211	49	9	1	5	19	58	4	3	1	232	308	355	663	123	291	25	8	283	75	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2037	32	MLB	BOS	52%	226	202	45	8	1	4	18	56	4	2	1	223	299	332	631	109	288	25	8	278	71	-7	+0	-2	+2	+6	-0.0
2038	33	MLB	BOS	56%	228	204	45	8	1	4	18	58	4	2	0	221	296	328	625	108	285	25	8	272	66	-9	+0	-2	+2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2560	2293	533	96	13	53	204	618	42	41	10	232	307	355	662	123	294	24	8	286	77	-67	+4	-8	+27	+73	3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	134	24	3	13	52	157	11	10	3	230	306	349	655	119	292	24	8	286	77	-17	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	5345	4781	1071	184	33	97	427	1283	100	109	27	224	301	337	638	113	284	24	8	288	79	-130	+11	-15	+57	+151	7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	130	22	4	12	52	156	12	13	3	224	300	337	638	114	284	24	8	288	79	-16	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	114	97	29	5	2	15	24	1	9	0	299	398	392	790	93	397	21	13	358	132	+4	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	131	29	7	1	14	15	7	6	4	221	329	290	619	69	248	10	9	291	81	-3	-0	—	—	+4	0.1
2024	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	112	83	23	1	1	21	22	7	11	3	277	459	313	773	36	371	20	19	372	143	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	65	52	9	3	0	9	5	3	5	1	173	328	231	559	58	188	8	14	273	67	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,625	52	42	229	300	348	+28	+21	5.1	4.6
	/162	664	13	11	229	300	348	+7.1	+5.3	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franyer Noria (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	214/286/296	82	284	1	1	25%	7%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Emmanuel Rivera 2017 · A	21	40→50	37→55	49→45	43	191/249/267	76	265	3	10	28%	7%	40	-2.4	244/280/355	111	307	9	5	23%	4%	75	-0.0	241/298/401	160	289	18	4	23%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕David Bote 2014 · A	21	39→48	39→55	47→45	47	187/265/275	88	257	6	7	28%	9%	50	-1.8	201/266/290	89	276	5	6	28%	6%	53	-1.5	236/310/400	165	301	20	6	27%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	47	208/281/306	98	256	9	11	22%	7%	64	-0.8	203/257/317	114	247	12	9	23%	6%	56	-1.3	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	217/280/375	158	316	19	7	36%	7%	82	+0.5	220/290/392	172	269	20	6	26%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	223/270/319	96	299	8	9	27%	5%	62	-0.9	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
●Leo Jiménez 2021 · A	20	44→49	37→45	50→45	46	209/267/287	78	267	4	6	23%	7%	52	-1.6	236/347/327	91	303	7	8	22%	10%	99	+1.7	226/327/323	97	289	8	8	22%	9%	87	+0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2012 · A	21	40→50	39→55	49→55	39	199/235/276	77	255	7	9	25%	4%	35	-2.8	226/257/308	82	273	6	18	19%	4%	52	-1.6	262/295/412	150	304	18	28	20%	4%	94	+1.0
✕Oswald Peraza 2021 · A	21	44→52	38→50	52→60	42	214/270/290	76	279	6	17	25%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/375	140	299	17	28	26%	5%	84	+0.6	228/285/371	143	284	18	30	26%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→50	37→45	48→45	45	189/266/266	77	278	4	7	31%	8%	47	-1.9	210/282/308	98	299	8	5	30%	8%	65	-0.7	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Nick Ahmed 2012 · A	22	43→51	39→55	50→55	45	209/266/296	87	268	6	14	24%	7%	54	-1.4	214/258/297	83	275	5	20	23%	5%	50	-1.7	239/302/404	165	275	16	7	19%	8%	95	+1.1
✕Carlos Pérez 2012 · A	21	44→47	38→60	49→45	43	212/261/295	83	279	5	6	25%	6%	51	-1.7	221/270/314	93	278	6	4	22%	6%	60	-1.0	218/290/403	184	239	24	0	21%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Yairo Muñoz 2015 · A	20	41→51	38→50	48→55	43	198/255/280	82	264	5	7	26%	6%	46	-2.0	218/253/322	104	271	10	9	23%	4%	55	-1.4	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Devin Mann 2019 · A	22	45→46	38→55	46→45	49	211/289/293	82	282	5	9	25%	9%	64	-0.8	217/288/371	154	285	18	7	29%	8%	84	+0.6	213/296/385	172	282	20	4	30%	9%	89	+0.8
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	39→48	36→50	46→55	42	189/249/245	56	269	4	12	30%	7%	33	-2.9	195/262/273	78	283	6	12	31%	8%	46	-2.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕José Caballero 2018 · A	21	47→45	39→45	54→70	39	224/275/317	93	301	6	7	27%	5%	63	-0.8	223/291/334	111	281	10	19	23%	7%	76	+0.0	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5