Franyer Noria

SS FCL Red Sox
Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 135 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1818ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202318ROKDSL Red Sox R…153.221/.329/.2900619—.154/.243/.206
202419ROKBOS112.277/.459/.31301169—.209/.351/.242
202520ROKBOS65.173/.328/.2310513—.127/.250/.164
2027PROJMLE22MLBBOS175.208/.290/.28014650.0
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBBOS22.218/.298/.3010069-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB24MLBBOS70.222/.301/.31312730.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk
K%98
Whiff%90
Z-Con%89
Speed64
BB%52
Chase%48
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj PA
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .287 / .278
PA30
HR0
K%27
BB%8
ISO72
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +0.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL BOS Red — 11497 29520 15241 90 299398392790 93397 2113 358 39 — — — — — —
202318 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 153131 29710 14157 64 221329290619 69248 109 291 19 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Red Sox — 11283 23110 21227 113 277459313773 36371 2019 372 69 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Red Sox — 6552 9300 953 51 173328231559 58188 814 273 13 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 114102 18310 10311 90 176257225482 49255 279 226 39 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 153136 21510 9197 64 154243206449 51168 126 197 19 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 11291 19110 13317 113 209351242593 33293 2812 270 69 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 6555 7200 673 51 127250164414 36131 119 187 13 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 114102 18310 10311 90 176257225482 49254 279 226 39 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL BOS Red — 11497 29520 15241 90 299398392790 93397 2113 358 39 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 153136 21510 9197 64 154243206449 51178 126 197 19 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox Red — 153131 29710 14157 64 221329290619 69248 109 291 19 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 11291 19110 13317 113 209351242593 33311 2812 270 69 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWFCL Red Sox — 11283 23110 21227 113 277459313773 36371 2019 372 69 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 6555 7200 673 51 127250164414 36143 119 187 13 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWFCL Red Sox — 6552 9300 953 51 173328231559 58188 814 273 13 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BOS Red — 114102 18310 10311 90 176257225482 49255 279 226 39 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 153136 21510 9197 64 154243206449 51168 126 197 19 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 11291 19110 13317 113 209351242593 33293 2812 270 69 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 6556 7200 673 51 125250161411 36131 119 187 13 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 11291 19110 13317 113 209351242593 33293 2812 270 69 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 6556 7200 673 51 125250161411 36131 119 187 13 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEBOS 0% 175156 32511 14473 41 208290280570 72285 278 264 65 -7 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEBOS 34% 6660 12201 5171 10 213293294587 82287 268 270 69 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.0
202924 MLB MLEBOS 48% 147131 28412 12383 31 216296306602 90288 268 276 73 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
203025 MLB MLEBOS 56% 212188 40613 18554 51 219299315614 97288 268 281 76 -6 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.1
203126 MLB MLEBOS 60% 272242 53824 23705 61 221300323623 103288 268 284 78 -7 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.3
203227 MLB MLEBOS 62% 309275 611025 26795 61 221300325625 104288 268 285 79 -8 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.3
203328 MLB MLEBOS 63% 329292 641025 28856 61 219298320619 101287 269 282 77 -9 +1 -1 +4 +7 0.2
203429 MLB MLEBOS 64% 332296 641025 28875 41 217296315610 98286 268 279 75 -10 +0 -1 +4 +7 -0.0
202823 MLB CTXBOS 34% 2220 4100 260 00 218298301600 83295 279 276 69 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
202924 MLB CTXBOS 48% 7063 13201 6181 20 222301313615 92296 269 281 73 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
203025 MLB CTXBOS 56% 118105 24412 10302 30 224304323626 99297 258 286 76 -3 +1 +0 +1 +3 0.1
203126 MLB CTXBOS 60% 163145 34613 14423 31 226305330636 104297 269 289 78 -4 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.1
203227 MLB CTXBOS 62% 191170 39713 16493 41 226305332638 106297 268 290 79 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.2
203328 MLB CTXBOS 63% 207185 41713 17543 41 225303328631 103296 268 287 77 -6 +0 -0 +2 +4 0.1
203429 MLB CTXBOS 64% 211188 41713 18553 31 222301322623 99295 269 284 75 -6 +0 -1 +2 +5 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 982876 19634515 8325415 194 224302325627 102296 268 286 68 -27 +2 -1 +11 +21 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 13023310 5516810 133 224302326628 102296 268 286 68 -18 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 21411895 392621325 18052748 6314 207292293585 86271 258 268 68 -48 +4 -2 +18 +37 0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 1201948 5516015 194 209295297592 89273 258 268 68 -18 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 65 PAwOBA .272 → .187 (−85)K% 7.7% → 11.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.69%÷0.965×1.440——11.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.85%÷0.988×0.620—×0.9858.56%
HBP% /PA4.62%—×0.720—×0.9853.27%
Singles /BIP12.77%÷1.033×0.820×0.951×0.9859.49%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.101×0.720×0.951×0.9853.91%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720×0.951×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.815×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .272 → .187; ISO .058 → .037; BABIP .188 → .131. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 112 PAwOBA .368 → .270 (−98)K% 19.6% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.64%÷1.026×1.440——27.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.75%÷0.968×0.620—×0.99511.94%
HBP% /PA6.25%—×0.720—×0.9954.48%
Singles /BIP34.43%÷0.993×0.820×0.973×0.99527.52%
Doubles /BIP1.64%÷1.061×0.720×0.973×0.9951.08%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷1.000×0.720×0.973×0.9951.14%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.952×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .368 → .270; ISO .036 → .025; BABIP .371 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 153 PAwOBA .286 → .197 (−89)K% 9.8% → 12.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.80%÷0.983×1.220——12.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.15%÷1.029×0.700—×0.9956.19%
HBP% /PA4.58%—×0.700—×0.9953.19%
Singles /BIP18.10%÷1.001×0.680×1.025×0.99512.54%
Doubles /BIP6.03%÷0.951×0.600×1.025×0.9953.89%
Triples /BIP0.86%÷1.136×0.600×1.025×0.9950.46%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.856×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 100, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .286 → .197; ISO .069 → .044; BABIP .248 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL BOS Red · 114 PAwOBA .349 → .226 (−123)K% 21.1% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.05%÷0.957×1.220——26.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.16%÷1.036×0.700—×1.0088.95%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.700—×1.0080.62%
Singles /BIP30.14%÷1.064×0.680×1.015×1.00819.70%
Doubles /BIP6.85%÷1.009×0.600×1.015×1.0084.17%
Triples /BIP2.74%÷0.999×0.600×1.015×1.0081.68%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.999×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 113, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .349 → .226; ISO .093 → .056; BABIP .397 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).