Franyer Noria — OGILVIE

Franyer NoriaSS FCL Red Sox

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 135 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .286 / .297

PA5

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	114	97	29	5	2	0	15	24	1	9	0	299	398	392	790	93	397	21	13	358	128	+4	+2	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	131	29	7	1	0	14	15	7	6	4	221	329	290	619	69	248	10	9	291	83	-3	-0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2024	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	112	83	23	1	1	0	21	22	7	11	3	277	459	313	773	36	371	20	19	372	138	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	65	52	9	3	0	0	9	5	3	5	1	173	328	231	559	58	188	8	14	273	71	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	114	103	20	3	1	0	9	36	1	9	0	194	265	243	508	49	305	32	8	239	48	-7	+2	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	137	25	6	1	0	8	22	7	6	4	182	263	241	504	58	203	14	5	218	34	-12	-0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	112	91	19	1	1	0	13	31	7	11	3	209	351	242	593	33	294	28	12	271	70	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	65	55	7	2	0	0	6	7	3	5	1	127	250	164	414	36	133	11	9	190	15	-7	+1	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	114	103	20	3	1	0	9	36	1	9	0	194	265	243	508	49	299	32	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	—	114	97	29	5	2	0	15	24	1	9	0	299	398	392	790	93	397	21	13	358	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	137	25	6	1	0	8	22	7	6	4	182	263	241	504	58	216	14	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	131	29	7	1	0	14	15	7	6	4	221	329	290	619	69	248	10	9	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	112	91	19	1	1	0	13	31	7	11	3	209	351	242	593	33	311	28	12	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	112	83	23	1	1	0	21	22	7	11	3	277	459	313	773	36	371	20	19	372	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	65	55	7	2	0	0	6	7	3	5	1	127	250	164	414	36	143	11	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	65	52	9	3	0	0	9	5	3	5	1	173	328	231	559	58	188	8	14	273	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	114	103	20	3	1	0	9	36	1	9	0	194	265	243	508	49	305	32	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	137	25	6	1	0	8	22	7	6	4	182	263	241	504	58	203	14	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	112	91	19	1	1	0	13	31	7	11	3	209	351	242	593	33	294	28	12	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	65	56	7	2	0	0	6	7	3	5	1	125	250	161	411	36	133	11	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	153	137	25	6	1	0	8	22	7	6	4	182	263	241	504	58	203	14	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	112	91	19	1	1	0	13	31	7	11	3	209	351	242	593	33	294	28	12	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	65	56	7	2	0	0	6	7	3	5	1	125	250	161	411	36	133	11	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		284	20	0	269	68	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	149	134	30	5	1	2	11	36	3	3	1	224	297	321	618	97	286	24	7	281	76	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	275	247	57	10	2	5	21	65	5	5	1	231	304	348	652	117	287	24	8	289	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	365	328	75	13	2	7	28	86	6	7	2	229	301	345	646	116	289	24	8	295	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	420	377	88	15	3	9	33	99	7	8	2	233	307	361	668	127	289	24	8	298	88	-6	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	453	407	94	16	3	10	35	107	8	8	2	231	304	359	663	128	289	24	8	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	469	421	98	17	3	10	37	111	8	9	2	233	307	359	666	126	289	24	8	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	474	425	98	17	3	10	38	113	8	8	2	231	306	355	661	125	289	24	8	299	89	-6	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	471	422	97	17	3	10	38	113	8	8	2	230	306	355	661	126	288	24	8	298	87	-7	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	464	415	94	16	3	9	38	112	8	7	2	227	304	345	648	118	287	24	8	295	86	-8	+1	-2	+5	+10	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	453	406	92	16	3	9	37	111	7	6	1	227	302	347	650	121	285	25	8	291	83	-9	+1	-3	+5	+10	0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	436	391	86	15	2	8	35	109	7	5	1	220	296	330	626	110	282	25	8	286	80	-11	+1	-4	+5	+9	0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	408	366	79	13	2	7	33	104	6	3	1	216	291	320	611	104	279	25	8	279	75	-12	+0	-4	+4	+9	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	51	46	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	217	294	326	620	109	291	24	8	270	76	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	133	120	28	5	1	2	10	32	2	2	1	233	303	342	645	108	292	24	8	279	82	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	192	172	40	7	1	4	15	45	3	4	1	233	305	355	660	122	294	23	8	285	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	230	206	49	9	1	5	18	54	4	4	1	238	311	364	675	126	294	23	8	288	88	-3	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	252	226	53	10	1	5	20	59	4	5	1	235	308	354	662	119	294	23	8	290	89	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	258	232	54	10	1	5	20	61	4	5	1	233	305	349	654	116	294	24	8	290	89	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	259	232	54	10	1	5	21	61	4	5	1	233	307	349	657	116	294	24	8	289	89	-3	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	251	225	51	9	1	5	20	60	4	4	1	227	301	342	643	116	293	24	8	288	87	-4	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	244	218	50	9	1	5	20	59	4	4	1	229	306	349	654	119	292	24	8	285	86	-4	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	236	211	49	9	1	5	19	58	4	3	1	232	308	355	663	123	290	25	8	281	83	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	226	202	45	8	1	4	18	56	4	2	1	223	299	332	631	109	287	25	8	276	80	-5	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	211	189	42	7	1	4	17	54	3	2	0	222	297	333	630	111	283	26	8	270	75	-6	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2543	2279	525	95	11	50	202	611	41	41	10	230	305	348	652	117	292	24	8	284	81	-45	+4	-8	+27	+55	3.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	134	24	3	13	52	156	10	10	3	230	304	348	653	118	290	24	8	284	81	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5286	4730	1060	182	33	96	420	1263	99	108	27	224	301	337	638	113	284	24	8	288	81	-88	+8	-15	+52	+105	6.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	130	22	4	12	52	155	12	13	3	223	300	337	637	113	282	24	8	288	81	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,608	52	42	229	300	349	+28	+21	5.5	5.0
/162	664	13	11	+7.1	+5.3	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franyer Noria (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	214/286/297	82	284	1	1	25%	7%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Emmanuel Rivera 2017 · A	21	40→50	37→55	49→45	43	191/249/267	76	265	3	10	28%	7%	47	-2.6	240/277/346	106	302	8	5	23%	4%	74	-0.5	243/299/400	157	290	18	4	22%	7%	94	+0.6
✕David Bote 2014 · A	21	39→49	39→50	47→45	48	188/267/275	87	259	6	7	28%	9%	56	-1.9	205/271/295	90	278	6	6	27%	6%	62	-1.4	237/312/394	157	303	18	6	26%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→50	50→30	45	190/266/263	73	266	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	211/295/322	111	281	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	208/306/343	135	260	16	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	42→52	39→45	50	41	204/263/293	89	285	6	11	29%	6%	58	-1.7	228/278/329	101	310	10	10	28%	6%	72	-0.7	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2023 · A	21	43→44	39→55	49→50	43	209/262/300	92	280	6	8	27%	6%	59	-1.7	212/262/331	119	273	12	10	26%	6%	66	-1.1	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2012 · A	21	42→52	38→50	49→55	39	203/239/279	76	259	6	9	24%	4%	45	-2.7	228/259/308	80	276	5	18	19%	4%	59	-1.7	259/292/401	141	302	16	28	20%	4%	91	+0.5
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.7	212/274/363	151	314	18	7	36%	7%	79	-0.2	218/289/380	162	269	18	6	25%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Leo Jiménez 2021 · A	20	44→49	37→45	50→45	46	209/267/287	78	267	4	6	23%	7%	57	-1.8	232/342/321	89	299	6	8	22%	10%	96	+1.0	228/319/335	107	286	10	5	22%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Yairo Muñoz 2015 · A	20	41→51	38→45	48→55	43	198/255/280	82	264	5	7	26%	6%	52	-2.2	222/257/325	103	272	10	9	22%	4%	62	-1.4	263/305/392	130	320	14	17	22%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	222/279/297	75	309	6	16	28%	6%	65	-1.2	239/307/326	86	317	6	16	24%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Yeison Asencio 2011 · A	21	40→50	41→45	49→45	45	198/259/301	103	247	8	11	23%	6%	59	-1.7	246/277/364	118	285	9	8	17%	3%	78	-0.3	276/296/387	112	301	11	6	13%	2%	89	+0.5
✕Cody Freeman 2021 · A	20	44→54	36→50	49→50	50	205/287/271	66	274	3	10	24%	9%	63	-1.4	204/268/307	103	251	11	9	23%	7%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	219/266/310	91	294	7	9	27%	5%	63	-1.4	243/282/332	89	297	7	6	20%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	44	213/273/305	91	288	7	15	28%	7%	64	-1.3	202/271/287	85	292	7	17	31%	8%	59	-1.6	226/309/352	126	299	12	25	27%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→49	37→45	48→45	44	187/265/261	75	278	4	7	32%	8%	52	-2.2	212/285/310	98	296	8	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Mauricio Dubón 2015 · A	21	45→55	37→50	50→55	38	209/264/286	77	303	4	12	31%	5%	56	-1.9	251/292/335	84	305	5	20	18%	5%	77	-0.3	256/302/388	132	291	16	11	18%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Wynton Bernard 2013 · A	22	43→53	39→45	52→60	42	206/267/294	87	298	6	10	31%	7%	59	-1.6	241/291/332	91	319	5	19	24%	6%	76	-0.4	250/298/375	125	305	12	37	21%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	42	37→45	51→50	45	200/253/283	83	254	3	11	22%	6%	51	-2.2	203/251/281	78	279	3	11	27%	6%	50	-2.3	195/231/264	69	262	0	19	24%	4%	37	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps