Walter Ford

P Everett AquaSox

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs A+ peak 0.8 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	20	16	80	5.17	3.46	20.6%	5.6%	—	K 14.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.85
2025	20	AModesto Nuts	23	23	125	4.67	3.44	17.9%	5.6%	—	K 13.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.77
2026	21	A+SEA	23	22	102	7.92	6.65	12.9%	5.8%	—	K 9.9% · BB 6.7% · FIP 7.53
2027PROJ	22	MLBSEA	15	15	75	5.97	5.97	10.0%	7.4%	-0.9
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSEA	11	11	58	5.66	5.57	13.2%	7.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSEA	15	15	84	5.42	5.32	15.1%	6.9%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control55Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsGreg Reynolds (age 23) · Derek Casey (age 23) · Anthony Swarzak (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%10.0%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	8	23	103	23	10	1	89%	2.5	15.2%	12.1%	3.0%	1.4%	3.57	4.14	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	9	8	23	103	23	10	1	89%	2.5	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	1.0%	3.57	2.97	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	14.5%	6.7%	7.8%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	14.5%	6.7%	7.8%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	2.5%	5.17	3.46	—
2025	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.6%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	—
2025	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.6%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	—
2025	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	17.9%	5.6%	12.2%	2.1%	4.67	3.44	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	9.9%	6.7%	3.2%	8.1%	7.92	7.53	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	9.9%	6.7%	3.2%	8.1%	7.92	7.53	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	12.9%	5.8%	7.1%	6.4%	7.92	6.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SEA	15	15	75	317	32	23	14	100%	5.0	10.0%	7.4%	2.6%	4.4%	5.97	5.97	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	117	494	65	35	21	100%	5.3	13.2%	7.1%	6.0%	4.2%	5.66	5.57	-0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	120	506	77	35	21	100%	5.7	15.1%	6.9%	8.2%	4.1%	5.42	5.32	-0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	121	513	84	35	21	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	4.0%	5.25	5.17	-0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	121	513	87	35	20	100%	6.1	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%	4.0%	5.15	5.10	-0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	120	505	85	35	20	100%	6.0	16.9%	6.9%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	116	490	82	35	20	100%	6.1	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	4.1%	5.19	5.22	-0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	111	468	77	34	20	100%	6.2	16.5%	7.3%	9.3%	4.3%	5.29	5.35	-0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	104	440	71	33	20	100%	6.1	16.2%	7.6%	8.6%	4.5%	5.43	5.53	-0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	58	245	32	17	10	100%	5.3	13.2%	7.1%	6.0%	4.2%	5.66	5.57	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	84	355	54	25	14	100%	5.6	15.1%	6.9%	8.2%	4.1%	5.42	5.32	-0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	99	418	68	29	17	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	4.0%	5.25	5.17	-0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	106	448	76	31	18	100%	5.9	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%	4.0%	5.15	5.10	-0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	108	456	77	32	18	100%	6.0	16.9%	6.9%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	107	452	76	32	19	100%	5.9	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	4.1%	5.19	5.22	-0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	103	435	72	32	19	100%	6.1	16.5%	7.3%	9.3%	4.3%	5.29	5.35	-0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	98	414	67	31	19	100%	6.1	16.2%	7.6%	8.6%	4.5%	5.43	5.53	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	762	3217	521	227	133	100%	5.9	16.2%	7.1%	9.1%	4.1%	5.29	4.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	137	60	35	100%	5.9	16.2%	7.1%	9.1%	4.1%	5.29	4.90	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		75	69	330	1475	186	104	73	92%	4.4	12.6%	7.1%	5.5%	4.9%	5.72	5.65	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	893	113	63	44	92%	4.4	12.6%	7.1%	5.5%	4.9%	5.72	5.65	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walter Ford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	10.0%	7.4%	4.4%	—	5.35	14.9%	7.9%	358	-0.62	—	—	—
Greg Reynolds R 2008 · 6.07 FIP	23	SP	6.07	7.5%	7.8%	4.8%	.294	4.78	12.5%	6.9%	32	-1.29	4.66	148	91
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	85
Anthony Swarzak R 2009 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP	5.43	12.7%	7.5%	4.5%	.317	4.19	13.7%	8.1%	199	-1.24	2.35	700	84
Michael Kelly R 2015 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP	5.19	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	.317	4.56	17.7%	4.3%	323	-0.63	2.70	666	84
Andy Ravel R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	10.5%	8.5%	4.4%	.358	3.49	12.8%	3.5%	45	-2.22	3.49	159	84
Justin Valdespina R 2017 · 6.21 FIP	22	SP	6.21	7.8%	8.9%	4.8%	.359	5.27	12.5%	-2.6%	41	-0.94	5.27	117	83
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	83
Jeffry Fernandez R 2015 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP	6.08	9.2%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	4.51	12.8%	3.7%	80	-1.57	4.51	195	82
Chad Durbin R 2000 · 5.93 FIP	22	SP	5.93	10.6%	12.0%	4.0%	.301	4.85	12.2%	4.7%	179	-1.08	3.37	811	82
Brian Reith R 2001 · 6.90 FIP	23	SP	6.90	11.5%	8.3%	6.8%	.305	5.04	15.5%	3.7%	87	-1.86	4.87	128	82
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	82
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	81
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	81
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	81
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	81
Carlos Felix R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP	5.21	12.9%	6.7%	4.3%	.374	4.92	8.7%	2.4%	64	-0.29	4.92	121	81
Gage Hinsz R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP	4.88	9.5%	8.5%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	226	80
Connor Grey R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.282	4.40	15.9%	9.5%	253	-1.03	2.70	461	80
Ryan Hawks R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	13.6%	7.3%	4.4%	.303	5.12	13.6%	4.3%	221	-0.14	4.78	342	80
David Ledbetter R 2015 · 5.69 FIP	23	SP	5.69	12.3%	6.9%	5.0%	.366	5.10	14.6%	5.1%	290	-0.59	4.84	411	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	112	15.5%	7.1%	1.61	5.36
Darrell May ('05)	3.3	132	14.3%	7.3%	1.68	5.16
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Jose Lima ('06)	7.8	143	14.4%	5.8%	1.53	5.26
Curt Young ('83-'93, 2 WAR*)	5.5	123	15.2%*	7.5%*	1.43*	4.74*
Dick Pole ('73-'78, -1 WAR*)	2.7	88	15.8%*	8.8%*	1.47*	5.40*
Roy Smith ('84-'91, 3 WAR*)	3.1	103	16.2%*	7.3%*	1.49*	4.73*