Aaron Cohn prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aaron Cohn P Stockton Ports

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	18	83	19	8	1	8%	1.4	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	1.2%	6.50	3.05	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	18	83	19	8	1	8%	1.4	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	1.2%	6.50	3.04	—
2022	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	41	0	56	260	43	16	10	0%	1.4	12.2%	7.3%	5.0%	5.0%	4.95	5.72	—
2022	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	41	0	56	260	43	16	10	0%	1.4	16.5%	6.2%	10.4%	3.8%	4.95	4.73	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	236	37	21	7	0%	1.3	11.1%	10.7%	0.4%	4.1%	6.70	5.78	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	236	37	21	7	0%	1.3	11.1%	10.7%	0.4%	4.1%	6.70	5.78	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	50	236	37	21	7	0%	1.3	15.7%	8.9%	6.8%	3.0%	6.70	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	27	0	29	121	25	12	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	77	19	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		92	1	124	579	77	52	24	1%	1.3	13.3%	9.0%	4.3%	4.1%	5.88	5.36	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	934	124	84	38	1%	1.3	13.3%	9.0%	4.3%	4.1%	5.88	5.36	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Cohn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.8%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.68	20.9%	11.0%	29	+0.05	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	89
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	86
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	84
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	84
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	83
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.9%	9.9%	1.19	4.64
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16