Ryan Loutos — OGILVIE

Ryan Loutos P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.81

FIP4.97

K%17.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

SI (5%)

SL-1.4 (32%)

CH-3.2 (17%)

FB-4.8 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	12	1	23	105	26	6	0	8%	1.9	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	0.0%	5.56	2.41	—
2021	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	12	1	23	105	26	6	0	8%	1.9	24.8%	5.7%	19.0%	0.0%	5.56	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	2	64	277	72	24	5	4%	1.4	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	1.9%	3.96	3.52	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	2	64	277	72	24	5	4%	1.4	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	1.8%	3.96	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	73	352	84	40	7	0%	1.5	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.3%	6.53	3.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	73	352	84	40	7	0%	1.5	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.3%	6.53	3.99	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	73	352	84	40	7	0%	1.5	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.0%	6.53	3.69	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.7%	1.4%	3.25	3.16	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.7%	1.4%	3.25	3.16	+0.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	1.3%	3.25	2.92	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.0%	7.0%	3.9%	5.50	5.04	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.0%	7.0%	3.9%	5.50	5.04	-0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.7%	9.1%	3.6%	5.50	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	14	78	8	9	4	0%	1.0	10.3%	11.5%	-1.3%	5.1%	10.67	7.50	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.1%	4.81	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	63	0	66	278	50	28	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.99	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	63	266	47	28	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.00	5.10	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	27	0	28	118	21	12	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.99	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	28	16	5	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.00	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	0	79	353	57	37	13	0%	1.0	16.2%	10.6%	5.7%	3.7%	5.99	5.08	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	888	143	93	33	0%	1.0	16.2%	10.6%	5.7%	3.7%	5.99	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		208	3	270	1225	243	115	27	1%	1.3	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.2%	4.96	3.80	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	2	200	906	180	85	20	1%	1.3	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.2%	4.96	3.80	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Loutos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	17.6%	10.2%	3.1%	—	5.04	18.0%	7.7%	129	+0.07	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	80
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	80
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	79
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	17.8%	10.2%	1.23	4.90
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38