Ryan Loutos
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA4.87
FIP5.06
K%18.5%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p1017.0%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.408
SI (5%)
SL-1.4 (32%)
CH-3.2 (17%)
FB-4.8 (52%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 12 | 1 | 23 | 105 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 8% | 1.9 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 5.56 | 2.41 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 12 | 1 | 23 | 105 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 8% | 1.9 | 24.8% | 5.7% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 5.56 | 1.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 2 | 64 | 277 | 72 | 24 | 5 | 4% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 3.47 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 2 | 64 | 277 | 72 | 24 | 5 | 4% | 1.4 | 26.0% | 8.7% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 2.99 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 73 | 352 | 84 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 6.53 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 73 | 352 | 84 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 6.53 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 55 | 239 | 59 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 3.22 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 55 | 239 | 59 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 3.25 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 50 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 50 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.50 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 52 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 0 | 79 | 353 | 59 | 40 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 6.04 | 5.14 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 888 | 148 | 101 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 6.04 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 3 | 270 | 1225 | 253 | 127 | 27 | 1% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 4.96 | 3.88 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 2 | 200 | 906 | 187 | 94 | 20 | 1% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 4.96 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Loutos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 3.1% | — | 5.12 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 129 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 86 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 83 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 82 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.51 | 14.9% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .360 | 4.33 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 84 | -1.18 | 4.03 | 229 | 82 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .321 | 5.43 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.91 | 2.85 | 174 | 81 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 80 |
| Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 80 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 80 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .417 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 104 | 79 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 1.25 | 4.96 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |