Ryan Loutos
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA7.98
FIP4.80
xFIP6.36
SIERA5.53
K%20.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.0%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4550
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p1017.0%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.408
SI (5%)
SL-1.4 (32%)
CH-3.2 (17%)
FB-4.8 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 12 | 1 | 23 | 105 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 5.56 | 2.41 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 46 | 2 | 64 | 277 | 72 | 24 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.96 | 3.52 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 50 | 0 | 73 | 352 | 84 | 40 | 7 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 6.53 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 50 | 0 | 55 | 239 | 59 | 23 | 3 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 50 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 50 | 27 | 9 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 8.08 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 6.13 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 16.4% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 15.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 5.64 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 3 | 270 | 1225 | 253 | 127 | 27 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 4.96 | 3.88 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 2 | 200 | 906 | 187 | 94 | 20 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 4.96 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Loutos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.91 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 163 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 82 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 79 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 78 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 78 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 78 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 78 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 78 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 78 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 78 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 78 |
| Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.56 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 196 | 78 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 78 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.87 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.27 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.27 | 313 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.