Joe Miller

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 LHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	22	99	3.71	3.51	19.2%	5.6%	—	K 14.6% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.53
2025	25	MIX2 levels	26	23	116	2.95	3.38	20.7%	7.2%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.22
2026	26	MIX4 levels	23	20	82	3.95	3.48	24.0%	10.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	12	12	70	4.83	4.83	16.1%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	4	4	26	4.83	4.86	16.7%	9.8%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBDET	6	6	36	4.89	4.95	17.0%	9.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJustin Marks (age 27) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%16.1%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	12	57	12	6	1	80%	2.5	17.4%	13.9%	3.5%	2.0%	5.11	4.48	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	12	57	12	6	1	80%	2.5	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	1.8%	5.11	3.67	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	12	69	318	78	31	4	67%	3.8	18.2%	11.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.93	3.76	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	12	69	318	78	31	4	67%	3.8	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	1.3%	3.93	2.94	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	14.6%	6.4%	8.1%	3.4%	3.71	4.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	14.6%	6.4%	8.1%	3.4%	3.71	4.53	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	19.2%	5.6%	13.6%	2.4%	3.71	3.51	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	16.0%	8.0%	7.9%	2.7%	2.95	4.22	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	16.0%	8.0%	7.9%	2.7%	2.95	4.22	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	20.7%	7.2%	13.6%	2.1%	2.95	3.38	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	20	82	362	87	38	7	87%	3.6	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.96	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	20	82	362	87	38	7	87%	3.6	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.96	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	20	82	362	87	38	7	87%	3.6	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	1.9%	3.95	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	12	12	70	296	48	29	8	100%	5.8	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	2.7%	4.83	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	287	48	28	8	100%	6.2	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	274	46	27	8	100%	5.9	17.0%	9.9%	7.0%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	18	11	3	100%	6.5	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	26	15	5	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.9%	7.0%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	260	44	26	8	100%	6.2	16.9%	9.9%	7.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.54	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	143	84	26	100%	6.0	16.9%	9.9%	7.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		97	81	378	1636	274	151	39	84%	3.9	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	865	145	80	21	84%	3.9	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	16.1%	9.7%	2.7%	—	4.90	16.8%	7.0%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	83
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	78
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	77
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	77
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	76
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	76
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	76
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	76
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	75
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	74
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	74
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	73
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	73
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	73
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	73
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.6%	9.8%	1.10	4.85
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Mike Dyer ('89-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.2	79	17.6%*	10.6%*	0.85*	4.58*