Ryan Och

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	37	56	3.70	1.65	33.9%	9.8%	—	K 26.8% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.55
2025	27	AASD	45	55	3.46	3.15	24.0%	12.7%	—	K 19.5% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.83
2026	28	MIX3 levels	16	22	4.91	2.78	30.7%	13.9%	—	K 27.1% · BB 16.2% · FIP 2.86
2027PROJ	29	MLBSD	55	58	4.92	4.92	22.0%	15.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBSD	16	17	4.97	5.04	21.8%	14.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBSD	25	26	5.08	5.19	21.6%	14.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control35Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsStephen Randolph (age 29) · Keith Hessler (age 29) · Colton Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%22.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	52	19	7	1	0%	1.3	36.5%	13.5%	23.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.78	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	52	19	7	1	0%	1.3	36.5%	13.5%	23.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.79	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	28	116	50	24	0	11%	1.5	33.9%	29.2%	4.7%	0.0%	3.81	3.94	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	2	28	116	50	24	0	11%	1.5	43.1%	20.7%	22.4%	0.0%	3.81	2.11	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	0.6%	3.70	2.55	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	0.6%	3.70	2.55	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	33.9%	9.8%	24.1%	0.4%	3.70	1.65	—
2025	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.1%	3.46	3.83	—
2025	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.1%	3.46	3.83	—
2025	27	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	24.0%	12.7%	11.4%	0.9%	3.46	3.15	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	22	101	31	14	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	16.2%	10.9%	0.0%	4.91	2.86	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	22	101	31	14	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	16.2%	10.9%	0.0%	4.91	2.86	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	22	101	31	14	1	0%	1.4	30.7%	13.9%	16.8%	1.0%	4.91	2.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	55	0	58	245	54	37	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.0%	7.0%	2.5%	4.92	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	55	231	51	34	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	51	216	46	32	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.7%	6.9%	3.0%	5.08	5.19	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	16	0	17	72	16	11	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	24	16	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.7%	6.9%	3.0%	5.08	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	179	39	26	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	122	24	0%	1.0	21.7%	14.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		127	2	174	743	196	116	5	2%	1.4	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.22	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	2	200	854	225	134	6	2%	1.4	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.22	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Och (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	22.0%	15.0%	2.5%	—	5.11	21.7%	7.0%	106	+0.19	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	88
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	81
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	80
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	77
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	77
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	77
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	73
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	2.84	187	73
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	72
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	72
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	70
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	70
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	69
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	69
Vic Darensbourg L 2000 · 3.93 FIP	29	SU	3.93	21.5%	9.9%	2.5%	.298	4.26	15.3%	9.6%	97	+0.33	2.94	287	69
Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	24.6%	14.1%	1.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	69
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	21.8%	14.8%	1.07	4.99
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*