Ryan Och
P
San Antonio Missions
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.5%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 10 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.77 | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 19 | 2 | 28 | 116 | 50 | 24 | 0 | 33.9% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 3.81 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 37 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 0.5% | 3.70 | 2.54 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 45 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 55 | 29 | 2 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 3.46 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 29 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 50 | 28 | 6 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 24 | 6 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 38 | 23 | 5 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 2 | 152 | 642 | 169 | 100 | 5 | 26.2% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 3.28 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 3 | 200 | 845 | 222 | 132 | 7 | 26.2% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Och (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 2.4% | — | 4.60 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 155 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 89 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 89 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 86 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 84 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 82 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 81 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 81 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 79 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 203 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 78 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 78 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.