Ryan Och — OGILVIE

Ryan Och P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%21.3%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	52	19	7	1	0%	1.3	36.5%	13.5%	23.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.78	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	52	19	7	1	0%	1.3	36.5%	13.5%	23.1%	1.9%	2.77	2.79	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	28	116	50	24	0	11%	1.5	33.9%	29.2%	4.7%	0.0%	3.81	3.94	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	2	28	116	50	24	0	11%	1.5	43.1%	20.7%	22.4%	0.0%	3.81	2.11	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	0.6%	3.70	2.55	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	26.8%	11.1%	15.7%	0.6%	3.70	2.55	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	56	245	83	24	1	0%	1.5	33.9%	9.8%	24.1%	0.4%	3.70	1.65	—
2025	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.1%	3.46	3.83	—
2025	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.1%	3.46	3.83	—
2025	27	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	45	0	55	229	55	29	2	0%	1.2	24.0%	12.7%	11.4%	0.9%	3.46	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	16	0	22	101	31	14	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	16.2%	10.9%	0.0%	4.91	2.86	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	16	0	22	101	31	14	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	16.2%	10.9%	0.0%	4.91	2.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	ROK RAW	SD	4	0	4	21	6	2	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	12.46	4.51	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	SD	10	0	16	71	25	10	0	0%	1.6	35.2%	14.1%	21.1%	0.0%	1.69	1.91	—
2026	28	AA RAW	SD	2	0	2	9	0	2	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	22.2%	-22.2%	0.0%	16.20	5.91	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	14.2%	7.1%	2.4%	4.78	4.78	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	28	128	37	18	2	—	—	28.7%	13.9%	14.8%	1.3%	4.88	3.29	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	280	59	39	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.9%	7.3%	2.6%	4.82	4.87	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	59	0	62	263	55	36	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	19	0	20	84	18	12	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.9%	7.3%	2.6%	4.82	4.87	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	28	19	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.91	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	52	218	46	30	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.7%	4.87	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	116	23	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.7%	4.87	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		127	2	174	743	196	116	5	2%	1.4	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.22	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	2	200	854	225	134	6	2%	1.4	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.22	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Och (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	21.3%	14.2%	2.4%	—	4.93	21.1%	7.3%	128	+0.15	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	87
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	85
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	84
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	78
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	78
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	78
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	78
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	78
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	76
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	76
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	76
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	76
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	76
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	75
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	75
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	75
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	75
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	21.2%	14.0%	1.00	4.83
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64