Ryan Och
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%21.3%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.5% | 13.5% | 23.1% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 2.78 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.5% | 13.5% | 23.1% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 2 | 28 | 116 | 50 | 24 | 0 | 11% | 1.5 | 33.9% | 29.2% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.81 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 2 | 28 | 116 | 50 | 24 | 0 | 11% | 1.5 | 43.1% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 3.81 | 2.11 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 0.6% | 3.70 | 2.58 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.9% | 9.8% | 24.1% | 0.4% | 3.70 | 1.65 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 45 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 55 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 3.46 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 45 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 55 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 0.9% | 3.46 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 16 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 31 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.1% | 16.2% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 2.86 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 62 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 91 | 394 | 93 | 55 | 8 | — | — | 23.7% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 4.80 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.3% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.77 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 55 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.55 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 116 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 2 | 174 | 743 | 196 | 116 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 0.7% | 3.72 | 3.24 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 2 | 200 | 854 | 225 | 134 | 6 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 0.7% | 3.72 | 3.24 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Och (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 21.3% | 14.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.92 | 21.1% | 7.4% | 128 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 85 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 85 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 82 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 79 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 78 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 78 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 77 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 77 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 77 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 76 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 76 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 76 |
| Justin Wright L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 75 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 75 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 21.2% | 13.8% | 1.01 | 4.82 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |