Reese Dutton

P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	APHI	2	0	6	0.00	1.60	30.0%	5.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 1.20
2025	24	MIX2 levels	24	14	105	4.03	3.14	18.7%	8.9%	—	K 14.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.80
2026	25	MIX2 levels	25	17	105	4.44	4.75	18.4%	9.8%	—	K 14.3% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.71
2027PROJ	26	MLBPHI	11	11	74	5.87	5.87	11.6%	12.9%	-0.8
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBPHI	5	5	34	5.73	5.74	12.6%	12.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBPHI	8	8	53	5.68	5.72	13.2%	12.2%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEdgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Noah Skirrow (age 26) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%11.6%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%-1.3%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.20	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.20	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	14.1%	10.3%	3.8%	1.1%	4.03	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	14.1%	10.3%	3.8%	1.1%	4.03	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	0.9%	4.03	3.14	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	105	450	83	44	16	68%	4.2	14.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.4%	4.44	5.71	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	105	450	83	44	16	68%	4.2	14.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.4%	4.44	5.71	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	105	450	83	44	16	68%	4.2	18.4%	9.8%	8.7%	3.6%	4.44	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PHI	11	11	74	312	36	40	10	100%	6.7	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	3.2%	5.87	5.87	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	93	394	50	49	13	100%	6.7	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	3.2%	5.73	5.74	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	91	383	50	47	13	100%	7.0	13.2%	12.2%	0.9%	3.3%	5.68	5.72	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	86	365	49	45	12	100%	6.7	13.4%	12.2%	1.1%	3.4%	5.70	5.77	-0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	81	343	46	43	12	100%	6.8	13.3%	12.4%	0.8%	3.6%	5.81	5.91	-0.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	34	144	18	18	5	100%	6.8	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	3.2%	5.73	5.74	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	53	224	30	27	7	100%	6.6	13.2%	12.2%	0.9%	3.3%	5.68	5.72	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	61	258	34	32	9	100%	6.8	13.4%	12.2%	1.1%	3.4%	5.70	5.77	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	63	266	35	33	10	100%	7.0	13.3%	12.4%	0.8%	3.6%	5.81	5.91	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	212	895	118	110	30	100%	6.8	13.2%	12.3%	0.8%	3.4%	5.73	5.42	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	111	104	28	100%	6.8	13.2%	12.3%	0.8%	3.4%	5.73	5.42	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		51	31	216	920	134	97	25	61%	4.2	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.67	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	29	200	851	124	90	23	61%	4.2	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.67	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reese Dutton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	11.6%	12.9%	3.2%	—	5.74	13.1%	0.7%	270	-0.13	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	84
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	80
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	79
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	79
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	79
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	78
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	78
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	77
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	76
William Fleming R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP-	5.31	10.1%	10.0%	3.3%	.337	4.49	14.4%	6.1%	95	-0.82	4.02	449	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	76
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	75
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	75
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	74
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	74
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	74
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	74
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	85	12.8%	12.4%	1.29	5.75
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Hal Elliott ('29-'32, -4 WAR*)	1.6	81	14.8%*	12.5%*	1.00*	5.85*
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Jesse Winters ('19-'23, -2 WAR*)	2.0	81	13.7%*	11.0%*	1.29*	5.12*
Jim Pittsley ('99)	1.1	75	11.2%	11.3%	1.44	6.02