Frankie Scalzo Jr.

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	45	0	55	2.14	3.26	20.8%	9.5%	—	K 17.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.50
2025	25	MIX2 levels	30	4	40	8.17	6.30	20.4%	13.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 6.52
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	4	50	5.26	3.97	21.2%	11.0%	—	K 17.7% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	26	0	27	5.18	5.18	18.2%	11.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	10	0	10	5.14	5.18	18.6%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFrancisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Scott Proctor (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	9	34	8	1	1	0%	1.5	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	2.9%	1.00	3.10	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	9	34	8	1	1	0%	1.5	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	2.9%	1.00	3.10	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	0	45	198	64	25	2	0%	1.9	23.9%	14.9%	9.0%	1.4%	4.63	3.73	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	0	45	198	64	25	2	0%	1.9	32.3%	12.6%	19.7%	1.0%	4.63	2.50	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	73	300	73	24	5	3%	1.9	17.9%	8.3%	9.5%	1.9%	2.35	3.69	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	73	300	73	24	5	3%	1.9	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	1.7%	2.35	2.98	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	1.3%	2.14	3.50	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	1.3%	2.14	3.50	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	1.3%	2.14	3.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	17.0%	13.0%	3.9%	5.8%	8.17	6.52	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	17.0%	13.0%	3.9%	5.8%	8.17	6.52	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	5.2%	8.17	6.30	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	50	236	50	26	5	12%	1.5	17.7%	12.3%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	4.63	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	50	236	50	26	5	12%	1.5	17.7%	12.3%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	4.63	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	50	236	50	26	5	12%	1.5	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.1%	5.26	3.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	26	0	27	114	21	13	4	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.8%	6.5%	3.2%	5.18	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	25	0	27	112	21	13	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.14	5.18	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.14	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.14	4.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	100	20	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	3.3%	5.14	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		176	9	270	1190	224	130	30	5%	1.5	18.8%	11.0%	7.8%	2.5%	4.03	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	7	200	880	165	96	22	5%	1.5	18.8%	11.0%	7.8%	2.5%	4.03	4.28	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frankie Scalzo Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.2%	11.8%	3.2%	—	5.18	18.6%	7.0%	27	+0.00	—	—	—
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	88
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	87
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	85
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	83
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	83
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	18.4%	11.7%	1.25	5.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26