Brandon Johnson

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	45	0	55	4.23	2.36	31.6%	8.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.35
2025	26	MIX2 levels	54	2	72	4.88	5.07	23.7%	10.1%	—	K 19.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.55
2026	27	MIX2 levels	54	1	71	4.97	3.96	24.9%	13.3%	—	K 22.2% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	66	0	69	5.15	5.15	19.9%	11.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	20	0	21	5.14	5.19	20.0%	11.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBKC	30	0	32	5.21	5.30	19.9%	11.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrandon Cunniff (age 28) · Tyler Walker (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%19.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	4.98	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	5.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.04	4.94	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	29.1%	12.4%	16.7%	2.9%	5.04	3.86	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	31.6%	8.5%	23.1%	1.6%	4.23	2.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.55	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.55	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	4.9%	4.88	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	24.9%	13.3%	11.6%	2.3%	4.97	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	66	0	69	291	58	34	10	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.6%	8.4%	3.4%	5.15	5.15	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	280	56	32	10	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.14	5.19	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	59	0	62	263	52	31	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.21	5.30	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	20	0	21	89	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.14	5.19	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	32	135	27	16	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.21	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	222	44	26	8	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.18	4.88	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	99	30	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.18	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		198	3	265	1158	257	129	41	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.58	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	2	200	875	194	98	31	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.58	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	19.9%	11.6%	3.4%	—	5.24	20.0%	8.4%	128	+0.09	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	88
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	81
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	81
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	80
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	20.0%	11.6%	1.38	5.17
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*