Zach Barnes

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX3 levels	42	63	4.60	4.09	18.8%	12.2%	—	K 15.2% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.90
2024	25	MIX3 levels	36	49	7.66	4.80	19.3%	10.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.97
2025	26	AAARI	16	14	2.57	5.39	16.4%	21.3%	—	K 13.3% · BB 23.4% · FIP 5.76
2027PROJ	28	MLBARI	12	13	5.28	5.28	17.9%	13.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBARI	6	6	5.26	5.32	18.2%	13.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsThad Weber (age 28) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%17.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	1	1	3	14	2	1	2	100%	3.0	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	14.3%	9.00	10.64	—
2021	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	1	1	3	14	2	1	2	100%	3.0	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	14.3%	9.00	11.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	30	153	40	29	2	0%	1.4	18.2%	22.0%	-3.8%	1.8%	8.31	5.35	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	0	30	153	40	29	2	0%	1.4	26.1%	19.0%	7.2%	1.3%	8.31	4.19	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	63	288	54	35	5	0%	1.5	15.2%	13.6%	1.7%	2.5%	4.60	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	63	288	54	35	5	0%	1.5	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	1.7%	4.60	4.09	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	49	238	46	24	8	0%	1.4	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.4%	7.66	4.97	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	0	49	238	46	24	8	0%	1.4	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.4%	7.66	4.97	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	0	49	238	46	24	8	0%	1.4	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	3.4%	7.66	4.80	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	16	0	14	61	10	13	1	0%	0.9	13.3%	23.4%	-10.2%	1.5%	2.57	5.76	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	16	0	14	61	10	13	1	0%	0.9	13.3%	23.4%	-10.2%	1.5%	2.57	5.76	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	16	0	14	61	10	13	1	0%	0.9	16.4%	21.3%	-4.9%	1.6%	2.57	5.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	ARI	12	0	13	55	10	7	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.3%	4.6%	3.0%	5.28	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	15	11	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.1%	5.26	5.32	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.1%	5.26	5.32	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.1%	5.26	4.94	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	3.1%	5.26	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		117	1	159	754	118	113	21	1%	1.4	15.7%	14.9%	0.7%	2.8%	6.16	5.19	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	946	148	141	26	1%	1.4	15.7%	14.9%	0.7%	2.8%	6.16	5.19	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Barnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	17.9%	13.3%	3.0%	—	5.32	18.2%	5.1%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	90
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	85
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	81
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	80
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	78