Brett Kerry

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 213 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	22	151	4.54	4.19	23.9%	5.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 5.10
2025	26	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	7.60	5.76	17.1%	8.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 6.20
2026	27	MIX2 levels	29	23	133	6.72	4.97	17.7%	8.4%	0.7	K 15.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAA	10	10	61	5.08	5.59	14.0%	7.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ77% MLB	29	MLBLAA	9	9	53	5.35	5.61	14.2%	8.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ83% MLB	30	MLBLAA	9	9	52	5.37	5.45	16.1%	7.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%50

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Kohei Arihara (age 28) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.08

FIP5.59

K%14.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.27	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.50	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	4.6%	4.46	4.74	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	26.9%	6.8%	20.1%	4.3%	4.46	4.08	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	5.7%	4.60	5.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	4.7%	4.60	4.96	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.9%	5.8%	14.0%	5.4%	4.54	5.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.9%	5.8%	14.0%	5.4%	4.54	5.10	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	23.9%	5.9%	17.9%	4.3%	4.54	4.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	14.2%	7.4%	6.9%	6.1%	7.60	6.20	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	14.2%	7.4%	6.9%	6.1%	7.60	6.20	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	17.1%	8.8%	8.4%	5.1%	7.60	5.76	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	4.2%	6.72	5.07	+0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	4.2%	6.72	5.07	+0.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.9%	6.72	4.97	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	14	54	12	2	1	0%	4.6	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	1.9%	3.95	2.73	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAA	10	10	61	258	36	20	11	100%	6.1	14.0%	7.9%	6.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.59	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	68	288	41	23	12	100%	6.2	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	4.2%	5.35	5.61	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	62	264	42	20	11	100%	6.2	16.1%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	5.37	5.45	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	53	224	32	18	9	100%	5.9	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	4.2%	5.35	5.61	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	52	220	35	17	9	100%	5.8	16.1%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	5.37	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	17	118	495	79	37	20	85%	5.9	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.0%	5.20	4.89	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	29	200	838	134	63	34	85%	5.8	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.0%	5.20	4.89	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		138	116	652	2836	509	211	145	84%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	5.1%	5.46	5.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	36	200	870	156	65	44	84%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	5.1%	5.46	5.33	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 119 IPFIP 4.98 → 5.30 (+0.31)K% 17.3% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.25%	—	×0.860	14.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.98 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 108 IPFIP 5.77 → 6.20 (+0.43)K% 16.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.56%	—	×0.860	14.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.18%	—	×0.900	7.36%
HR / BF /BF	5.52%	÷0.989	×1.100	6.14%

Result: FIP 5.77 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 8 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.30 (+1.20)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.250	20.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.873	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 85 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.62 (+0.74)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.47%	—	×0.860	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×0.900	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.57%	÷0.886	×1.100	5.67%

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 66 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.33 (+1.11)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.95%	—	×1.100	6.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷0.976	×1.200	4.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 118 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.93 (+1.06)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.72%	—	×0.810	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.99%	—	×1.100	8.79%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷0.970	×1.200	5.83%

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 17 IPFIP 5.41 → 5.74 (+0.33)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.60%	—	×0.860	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×0.900	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.003	×1.100	5.10%

Result: FIP 5.41 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 103 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.74 (+0.66)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.94%	—	×0.810	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.100	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.34%	÷1.131	×1.200	4.60%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Kerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	14.0%	7.9%	4.2%	—	5.53	15.1%	7.3%	131	-0.06	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	79
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	77
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	76
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	74
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	71
Greg Reynolds R 2013 · 4.66 FIP	28	SP	4.66	9.8%	3.8%	3.5%	.300	5.97	3.8%	-3.5%	25	+1.31	4.66	148	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	69
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	68
Dustin Beggs R 2021 · 5.09 FIP	28	SP-	5.09	11.3%	7.7%	3.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	407	67
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	67
Brian Powell R 2002 · 5.53 FIP	28	SP-	5.53	11.8%	8.3%	4.3%	.276	4.45	14.5%	7.3%	39	-1.08	4.45	212	67
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	67
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	66
P.J. Walters R 2013 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP	4.82	12.0%	9.8%	2.7%	.333	3.97	15.9%	8.2%	83	-0.85	3.97	230	66
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	65
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	65
Seth Etherton R 2005 · 5.78 FIP	28	SP	5.78	13.5%	6.8%	5.4%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	108	65
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	78	15.1%	7.6%	1.58	5.17
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*