Brett Kerry — OGILVIE

Brett Kerry P Salt Lake Bees

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 213 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%14.2%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.27	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.50	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	4.6%	4.46	4.74	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	26.9%	6.8%	20.1%	4.3%	4.46	4.08	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	5.7%	4.60	5.91	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	5.7%	4.60	5.91	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	4.7%	4.60	4.96	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.5%	5.8%	13.7%	5.4%	4.54	5.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.5%	5.8%	13.7%	5.4%	4.54	5.12	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	23.9%	5.9%	17.9%	4.3%	4.54	4.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	13.7%	7.4%	6.4%	6.1%	7.60	6.24	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	13.7%	7.4%	6.4%	6.1%	7.60	6.24	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	17.1%	8.8%	8.4%	5.1%	7.60	5.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	14	54	12	2	1	0%	4.6	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	1.9%	3.95	2.73	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	22	129	602	109	49	24	79%	4.6	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	4.4%	6.85	5.13	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	22	129	602	109	49	24	79%	4.6	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	4.4%	6.85	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	LAA	25	22	115	548	97	47	23	88%	4.6	17.7%	8.6%	9.1%	4.2%	7.20	5.00	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	LAA	3	0	14	54	12	2	1	0%	4.6	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	1.9%	3.95	2.71	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	LAA	3	0	14	54	12	2	1	0%	4.6	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	1.9%	3.95	2.71	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	LAA	1	1	8	33	5	3	2	100%	7.8	14.2%	7.6%	6.6%	4.8%	5.48	5.48	-0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	LAA	1	1	8	34	5	3	2	100%	8.0	14.2%	7.6%	6.6%	4.8%	5.48	5.48	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	137	635	114	52	26	—	—	17.9%	8.1%	9.8%	4.0%	6.78	5.15	-0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	22	91	114	52	26	—	—	125.2%	56.7%	68.5%	28.2%	43.01	15.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	86	365	57	27	16	100%	6.2	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	4.5%	5.49	5.52	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	82	348	56	26	16	100%	5.9	15.9%	7.6%	8.4%	4.5%	5.49	5.56	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	327	59	23	15	100%	6.0	17.9%	7.1%	10.8%	4.6%	5.41	5.40	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	82	346	54	25	15	100%	5.9	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	4.5%	5.49	5.52	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	78	329	52	25	15	100%	6.0	15.9%	7.6%	8.4%	4.5%	5.49	5.56	-0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	56	22	14	100%	6.2	17.9%	7.1%	10.8%	4.6%	5.41	5.40	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	40	256	1075	180	77	47	93%	5.9	16.7%	7.2%	9.5%	4.4%	5.38	5.01	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	32	200	842	141	60	37	93%	5.9	16.7%	7.2%	9.5%	4.4%	5.38	5.01	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		137	115	648	2816	500	208	145	84%	4.7	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	5.1%	5.48	5.36	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	36	200	870	155	64	45	84%	4.7	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	5.1%	5.48	5.36	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Kerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	13.9%	7.6%	4.8%	—	5.50	16.5%	9.1%	246	-0.40	—	—	—
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	84
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	84
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	82
Casey Kelly R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	27	SP	5.25	16.2%	8.5%	4.5%	.318	4.41	16.4%	10.2%	160	-0.84	4.08	607	82
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	77
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	77
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	76
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	275	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	75
Caleb Boushley R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP	5.21	18.0%	6.2%	5.2%	.323	4.59	15.6%	8.6%	397	-0.62	3.05	790	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	73
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	72
Nick Tropeano R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	27	SP	5.28	20.3%	9.2%	5.0%	.251	4.48	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.80	2.34	446	72
Allen Webster R 2017 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP	5.78	14.9%	8.1%	5.3%	.346	4.56	17.3%	11.5%	11	-1.22	4.56	177	72
Blake Beers R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SP	5.32	16.9%	10.2%	4.3%	.317	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	208	-0.57	4.35	416	72
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	71
Glenn Sparkman R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	27	SP-	5.74	13.4%	6.6%	5.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	363	71
Riley Smith R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.5%	6.2%	4.4%	.389	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	539	71
A.J. Griffin R 2016 · 5.35 FIP	28	SP	5.35	21.0%	8.8%	5.3%	.267	5.75	18.0%	9.7%	77	+0.40	5.35	196	71
Walker Powell R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP	5.21	18.6%	5.8%	5.4%	.258	5.35	12.1%	6.3%	27	+0.14	2.87	242	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	81	15.8%	7.4%	1.77	5.57
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14