Reid Johnston

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 218 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	A+CLE	23	15	92	3.83	4.03	25.4%	12.1%	—	K 19.5% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.00
2026	27	AACLE	24	0	31	4.99	5.12	21.3%	13.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 14.8% · FIP 5.86
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	17	0	18	5.33	5.33	19.0%	13.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCLE	6	0	6	5.30	5.36	19.2%	13.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 27) · Orlando Rodriguez (age 27) · Alex Caldera (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%19.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	16	112	466	122	24	10	67%	4.7	19.4%	6.1%	13.3%	2.7%	3.94	3.74	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	16	112	466	122	24	10	67%	4.7	26.2%	5.2%	21.0%	2.1%	3.94	2.73	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	65%	4.0	19.5%	13.9%	5.7%	3.3%	3.83	5.00	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	65%	4.0	25.4%	12.1%	13.3%	2.8%	3.83	4.03	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	4.3%	4.99	5.86	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	4.3%	4.99	5.86	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.5%	4.99	5.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	17	0	18	76	14	10	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	3.2%	5.33	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	19	0	20	84	16	11	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.3%	5.30	5.36	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.3%	5.30	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.3%	5.30	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.3%	5.30	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		71	31	234	1005	192	104	32	44%	3.3	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.03	4.54	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	26	200	858	164	89	27	44%	3.3	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.03	4.54	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Johnston (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	19.0%	13.4%	3.2%	—	5.36	19.2%	6.0%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	71
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	70
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	70
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	70
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	69
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	69
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	69
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	69
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	69
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	68
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	68
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	68
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	68
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	68
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	68
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	67
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	67