Nick Jones

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 224 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AALAA	20	0	24	3.00	0.93	30.2%	2.1%	—	K 24.5% · BB 2.3% · FIP 1.32
2025	26	AALAA	36	3	53	5.77	4.14	23.2%	10.6%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.81
2026	27	MIX2 levels	18	0	26	5.26	3.26	27.8%	12.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAA	56	0	59	4.94	4.94	20.0%	12.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBLAA	16	0	17	4.95	5.01	20.1%	12.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBLAA	26	0	27	5.04	5.13	20.0%	12.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Aaron Brown (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%20.0%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	14	66	19	6	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	9.1%	19.7%	1.5%	5.65	2.65	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	14	66	19	6	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	9.1%	19.7%	1.5%	5.65	2.61	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	197	57	31	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	17.9%	4.4%	1.3%	4.40	4.21	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	43	197	57	31	2	0%	1.1	28.9%	15.7%	13.2%	1.0%	4.40	3.22	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	66	267	77	28	4	0%	1.3	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	1.8%	3.27	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	66	267	77	28	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	10.5%	18.4%	1.5%	3.27	2.83	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	24.5%	2.3%	22.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.32	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	24.5%	2.3%	22.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.32	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	2.1%	28.1%	0.0%	3.00	0.93	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.3%	5.77	4.81	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.3%	5.77	4.81	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	5.77	4.14	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	115	32	14	2	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.2%	8.0%	1.3%	5.26	3.73	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	115	32	14	2	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.2%	8.0%	1.3%	5.26	3.73	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	26	115	32	14	2	0%	1.4	27.8%	12.2%	15.7%	1.7%	5.26	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAA	56	0	59	249	50	31	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	54	0	56	237	48	29	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	3.0%	4.95	5.01	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	50	0	53	223	45	27	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	5.04	5.13	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	0	17	72	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	3.0%	4.95	5.01	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	26	0	27	114	23	14	4	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	5.04	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	185	37	23	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	5.01	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	105	27	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	5.01	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		173	3	226	987	220	117	18	2%	1.3	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	1.8%	4.42	3.73	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	3	200	873	194	104	16	2%	1.3	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	1.8%	4.42	3.73	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	20.0%	12.3%	2.9%	—	5.07	20.0%	7.7%	109	+0.13	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	88
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	86
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	83
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	83
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	82
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	81
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	79
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	79
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	79
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	78
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	78
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	77
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	77
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	76
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	75
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	75
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	75
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	20.0%	12.3%	1.18	4.97
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68