Chad Patrick

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBRP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAAMIL	26	24	136	2.90	3.36	26.1%	7.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.92
2025	26	MIX2 levels	35	31	162	3.67	3.70	25.2%	8.2%	2.3	K 24.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.69
2026	27	MLBMIL	57	6	106	3.40	3.97	21.1%	10.2%	0.7
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	14	14	92	4.06	4.24	22.4%	8.8%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	15	15	99	4.26	4.40	21.8%	9.1%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIL	14	14	93	4.47	4.61	21.1%	9.4%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

Whiff%55

xwOBA vs44

K%42

CompsDustin Nippert (age 28) · Joaquín Benoit (age 28) · Drew VerHagen (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.06

FIP4.24

K%22.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP92

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

CT+4.6 (43%)

SI (24%)

CU (8%)

SL (8%)

FB-2.4 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.79	—
2021	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.51	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.2%	3.30	3.86	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	1.6%	3.30	2.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	18.8%	9.7%	9.2%	4.4%	5.59	5.15	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.6%	5.59	4.37	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	22.5%	6.3%	16.1%	3.5%	2.90	3.92	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	22.5%	6.3%	16.1%	3.5%	2.90	3.92	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	2.9%	2.90	3.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.0%	3.67	3.69	+2.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.0%	3.67	3.69	+2.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	3.67	3.70	+2.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.92	+0.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.92	+0.8
2026	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.5%	3.40	3.97	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	29	226	944	220	84	24	35%	2.7	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.5%	3.47	3.65	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	14	14	92	388	87	34	11	100%	6.6	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.24	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	105	442	96	40	13	100%	6.5	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.40	+0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	98	415	88	39	13	100%	6.6	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	99	418	91	38	12	100%	6.6	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.40	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	93	393	83	37	12	100%	6.6	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	59	418	1758	395	159	49	52%	3.7	22.5%	9.0%	13.4%	2.8%	3.88	3.87	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	28	200	840	189	76	23	52%	3.7	22.5%	9.0%	13.4%	2.8%	3.88	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		160	97	580	2462	534	209	79	61%	3.6	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.83	4.11	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	33	200	848	184	72	27	61%	3.6	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.83	4.11	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Patrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	22.4%	8.8%	2.8%	—	4.50	21.5%	12.3%	203	+0.26	—	—	—
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	72
Joaquín Benoit R 2005 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	21.1%	10.3%	2.4%	.246	3.39	24.2%	13.9%	207	-0.57	1.99	1,064	72
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	67
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	66
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	66
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	66
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	65
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	65
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	65
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	64
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	64
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	64
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	64
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	63
Jose A. Flores R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	20.1%	8.7%	1.1%	.297	4.77	13.7%	3.4%	57	+1.68	2.94	237	63
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	104	22.4%	9.1%	1.08	3.92
Willie Ramsdell ('47-'52, 4 WAR*)	2.4	120	21.9%*	9.4%*	1.15*	3.99*
Blix Donnelly ('44-'51, 6 WAR*)	3.5	99	21.6%*	9.7%*	1.26*	3.92*
Tom Sturdivant ('55-'64, 10 WAR*)	5.7	114	21.9%*	8.7%*	1.08*	4.16*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Mike Montgomery ('20)	2.7	108	18.0%	8.8%	0.96	3.84
Luis Ortiz ('25)	1.6	109	19.8%	10.1%	1.16	4.05