Zach Brzykcy
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 208 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 122
ERA5.22
FIP5.42
K%22.6%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p6127.0%
K%
p4721.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.368
CU (24%)
CH (22%)
FB-5.6 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 1 | 62 | 266 | 86 | 24 | 8 | 4% | 2.2 | 24.9% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 4.6% | 5.20 | 4.85 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 1 | 62 | 266 | 86 | 24 | 8 | 4% | 2.2 | 32.3% | 9.0% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 5.20 | 3.16 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 95 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 1.76 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 95 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.5% | 10.1% | 28.3% | 2.0% | 1.76 | 2.28 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 36 | 2 | 41 | 158 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 6% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 36 | 2 | 41 | 158 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 6% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 10.8% | 19.0% | 2.5% | 3.73 | 3.32 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 0 | 49 | 238 | 55 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.6% | 14.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 8.63 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 0 | 49 | 238 | 55 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 8.63 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 25 | 0 | 35 | 156 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 4.11 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 14.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 14.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 71 | 307 | 71 | 42 | 8 | — | — | 23.1% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 38 | 159 | 71 | 42 | 8 | — | — | 44.6% | 26.4% | 18.2% | 5.3% | 8.76 | 5.60 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 0 | 167 | 725 | 159 | 100 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 6.10 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 190 | 119 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 6.10 | 5.21 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 192 | 3 | 249 | 1065 | 267 | 135 | 37 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.48 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 2 | 200 | 857 | 215 | 109 | 29 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Brzykcy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.42 | 22.6% | 14.6% | 3.6% | — | 5.43 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 106 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 78 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.10 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .191 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 131 | -0.90 | 2.32 | 676 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 77 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 76 |
| Blair Calvo R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 21.6% | 16.7% | 3.5% | .354 | 5.59 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 18 | +0.30 | 2.86 | 181 | 76 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .339 | 2.99 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 193 | -1.52 | 2.09 | 339 | 76 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 75 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 75 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.49 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.4% | .324 | 5.40 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.09 | 3.62 | 183 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .238 | 4.61 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 94 | +0.36 | 3.22 | 549 | 75 |
| Morris Austin R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 75 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 74 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 74 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 74 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 74 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 1.42 | 5.29 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |