Zach Brzykcy

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX5 levels	36	2	41	3.73	3.32	29.7%	10.8%	0.6	K 27.5% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.87
2025	26	MIX4 levels	52	0	49	8.63	5.53	23.1%	13.9%	-0.6	K 20.3% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.65
2026	27	MIX2 levels	42	5	60	4.92	4.38	19.6%	13.0%	0.1	K 17.0% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	46	0	48	5.05	5.14	20.4%	12.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ80% MLB	29	MLBMIA	37	0	39	5.12	5.22	20.1%	12.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ85% MLB	30	MLBMIA	31	0	33	5.24	5.36	19.7%	12.7%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo52

K%47

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Thad Weber (age 28) · Joe Colón J (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.05

FIP5.14

K%20.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	1	62	266	86	24	8	4%	2.2	24.9%	10.4%	14.5%	4.1%	5.20	4.59	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	1	62	266	86	24	8	4%	2.2	32.3%	9.0%	23.3%	3.0%	5.20	3.16	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	61	247	95	25	5	0%	1.2	30.7%	11.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.76	3.33	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	61	247	95	25	5	0%	1.2	38.5%	10.1%	28.3%	2.0%	1.76	2.28	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	27.5%	14.5%	13.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.87	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	27.5%	14.5%	13.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.87	+0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	29.7%	10.8%	19.0%	2.5%	3.73	3.32	+0.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	20.3%	13.6%	6.8%	4.6%	8.63	5.65	-0.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	20.3%	13.6%	6.8%	4.6%	8.63	5.65	-0.6
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	4.2%	8.63	5.53	-0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	60	270	53	35	6	12%	1.4	17.0%	11.5%	5.5%	2.6%	4.92	4.53	+0.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	60	270	53	35	6	12%	1.4	17.0%	11.5%	5.5%	2.6%	4.92	4.53	+0.0
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	5	60	270	53	35	6	12%	1.4	19.6%	13.0%	6.7%	2.2%	4.92	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	0	32	150	30	17	8	0%	0.9	20.0%	11.3%	8.7%	5.3%	9.38	6.10	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	46	0	48	203	41	26	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.8%	7.6%	3.2%	5.05	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	203	41	26	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.22	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	39	166	33	21	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.7%	6.9%	3.5%	5.24	5.36	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	37	0	39	165	33	21	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.22	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	27	18	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.7%	6.9%	3.5%	5.24	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	0	104	454	90	56	18	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.3%	7.7%	4.1%	6.46	5.19	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	0	200	876	174	108	35	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.3%	7.7%	4.1%	6.46	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		209	8	274	1179	280	143	39	4%	1.3	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.76	4.43	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	6	200	861	204	104	28	4%	1.3	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.76	4.43	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 57 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.53 (+0.20)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.77%	—	×0.860	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.79%	—	×0.900	11.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 23 IPFIP 5.35 → 5.66 (+0.31)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.860	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.80%	—	×0.900	16.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.960	×1.100	3.89%

Result: FIP 5.35 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 13 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.87 (+0.93)K% 34.0% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.810	27.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.100	14.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 10 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.36 (+0.96)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.150	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 8 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.91 (+0.49)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.860	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×0.900	3.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.986	×1.100	4.13%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 38 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.46 (+0.93)K% 34.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.84%	—	×0.810	28.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.100	11.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.979	×1.200	2.37%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 22 IPFIP 1.86 → 3.11 (+1.25)K% 45.9% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.88%	—	×0.770	35.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.150	12.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.64%

Result: FIP 1.86 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 62 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.59 (+1.43)K% 32.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.33%	—	×0.770	24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.150	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.906	×1.250	4.15%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Brzykcy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	20.4%	12.8%	3.2%	—	5.28	19.9%	7.2%	88	+0.14	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	73
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	73
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	72
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	72
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	72
Tucker Healy R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	19.2%	10.5%	4.4%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	174	71
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	71
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	20.1%	12.5%	1.43	5.85
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*