Zach Brzykcy — OGILVIE

Zach Brzykcy P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.17

FIP5.32

K%22.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

CU (24%)

CH (22%)

FB-5.6 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	1	62	266	86	24	8	4%	2.2	24.9%	10.4%	14.5%	4.1%	5.20	4.59	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	1	62	266	86	24	8	4%	2.2	32.3%	9.0%	23.3%	3.0%	5.20	3.16	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	61	247	95	25	5	0%	1.2	30.7%	11.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.76	3.33	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	61	247	95	25	5	0%	1.2	38.5%	10.1%	28.3%	2.0%	1.76	2.28	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	27.5%	14.5%	13.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.87	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	27.5%	14.5%	13.0%	2.3%	3.73	3.87	+0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	36	2	41	158	47	17	4	6%	1.1	29.7%	10.8%	19.0%	2.5%	3.73	3.32	+0.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	4.6%	8.63	5.68	-0.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	4.6%	8.63	5.68	-0.6
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	0	49	238	55	33	10	0%	0.9	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	4.2%	8.63	5.53	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	0	32	150	30	17	8	0%	0.9	20.0%	11.3%	8.7%	5.3%	9.38	6.10	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	40	4	56	253	48	33	6	10%	1.4	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	2.7%	4.95	4.73	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	40	4	56	253	48	33	6	10%	1.4	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	2.7%	4.95	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIA	38	4	53	241	46	31	6	11%	1.4	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.5%	5.06	4.48	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIA	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.80	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIA	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.80	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	20	4	3	1	0%	0.9	22.2%	13.8%	8.5%	3.6%	5.17	5.32	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIA	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.8%	8.5%	3.6%	5.17	5.32	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	61	273	52	36	7	—	—	19.2%	13.1%	6.1%	2.5%	4.97	4.78	-0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	8	33	52	36	7	—	—	160.6%	109.5%	51.1%	20.6%	39.25	14.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	54	230	51	31	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.5%	8.8%	3.6%	5.21	5.30	-0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	50	0	52	220	48	29	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.7%	5.29	5.39	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	49	30	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.5%	8.8%	3.6%	5.21	5.30	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	47	0	49	207	45	28	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.7%	5.29	5.39	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	0	137	597	128	77	24	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.9%	8.6%	4.1%	6.20	5.17	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	0	200	868	186	112	35	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.9%	8.6%	4.1%	6.20	5.17	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		207	7	270	1162	273	141	39	3%	1.3	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.48	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	5	200	861	202	104	29	3%	1.3	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	3.3%	4.77	4.48	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Brzykcy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	22.2%	13.8%	3.6%	—	5.34	22.0%	8.6%	106	+0.02	—	—	—
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	79
Michael Mariot R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	20.3%	12.3%	3.8%	.191	4.24	21.6%	12.6%	131	-0.76	2.40	676	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	77
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	76
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	76
Blair Calvo R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	27	SU	4.88	20.4%	14.3%	3.1%	.354	5.75	20.7%	10.0%	18	+0.87	2.86	181	76
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	75
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	75
Dugan Darnell R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	22.6%	9.6%	4.1%	.302	3.25	23.1%	15.4%	94	-1.39	2.50	238	75
Connor Sadzeck R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SU	4.20	25.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.238	4.61	22.7%	10.8%	94	+0.41	3.20	549	75
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	75
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	75
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	75
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	22.0%	13.5%	1.41	5.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22