Erick Peña — OGILVIE

Erick PeñaCF Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 L/R 6'1" / 205 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 204 proj PA

wRC+†-4

AVG/OBP/SLG.113 / .190 / .185

PA204

HR2

K%55

BB%8

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Blue	—	156	143	13	5	1	2	9	82	3	4	4	91	161	182	343	91	183	53	6	151	-26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Blue	—	156	137	22	10	1	3	15	57	3	4	4	161	258	314	572	153	244	37	10	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	326	300	22	5	1	4	22	197	1	6	5	73	139	137	276	63	178	60	7	131	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	326	281	42	10	1	9	41	121	1	6	5	149	260	288	548	139	216	37	13	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	290	256	6	1	0	2	31	240	1	11	6	23	132	51	183	27	250	83	11	101	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	290	240	32	7	1	10	47	153	1	11	6	133	278	296	574	163	278	53	16	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	427	385	38	10	2	6	30	262	4	13	3	99	172	182	354	83	267	61	7	159	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	427	364	64	16	3	10	51	171	4	13	3	176	284	319	603	143	290	40	12	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	KC	—	204	184	21	5	1	2	16	113	2	4	1	114	193	185	378	71	262	55	8	180	-4	-24	+0	+0	+1	+6	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	211	190	24	5	1	3	17	109	2	4	1	126	206	211	416	84	269	52	8	200	11	-21	+0	+0	+1	+6	-1.4
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	334	300	42	9	1	6	28	165	3	7	2	140	221	237	457	97	272	49	8	213	21	-30	+1	+0	+1	+9	-1.9
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	63	58	8	2	0	1	5	33	0	1	0	138	206	224	430	86	265	52	8	192	5	-7	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	147	133	19	4	1	3	12	73	1	3	1	143	219	256	475	113	268	50	8	204	14	-14	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	210	191	27	6	1	4	17	106	1	4	1	141	215	246	461	105	280	50	8	200	11	-21	+0	+0	+1	+6	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	84	19	3	12	53	328	3	12	3	142	216	245	462	103	283	50	8	200	11	-65	+1	+0	+2	+18	-4.4
Career	—			—	1948	1758	166	40	7	25	153	1168	16	49	22	94	174	168	342	73	244	60	8	161	-19	-261	+1	+0	+7	+55	-20.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	54	13	2	8	51	390	5	16	7	92	171	162	333	70	238	60	8	161	-19	-87	+0	+0	+2	+18	-6.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Blue	—	156	137	22	10	1	3	15	57	3	4	4	161	258	314	572	153	244	37	10	260	57	-8	-1	—	—	+4	-0.4
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	326	281	42	10	1	9	41	121	1	6	5	149	260	288	548	139	216	37	13	253	52	-18	-1	—	—	+9	-1.0
2023	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	290	240	32	7	1	10	47	153	1	11	6	133	278	296	574	163	278	53	16	268	63	-12	-0	—	—	+8	-0.4
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	427	364	64	16	3	10	51	171	4	13	3	176	284	319	603	143	290	40	12	273	67	-16	+1	—	—	+12	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	415	6	8	126	202	211	+1	+5	-3.1	-1.5
	/162	664	10	13	126	202	211	+2.4	+8.0	-4.9	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Peña (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	37→42	49→54	51	113/190/185	73	262	2	4	55%	8%	-4	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Casey Hughston 2017 · A	23	30→36	42→40	50	29	159/199/255	96	273	10	11	45%	4%	14	-4.2	168/220/257	89	320	7	10	46%	6%	24	-3.5	154/211/236	82	301	6	10	48%	6%	13	-3.0
✕Quentin Holmes 2021 · A	22	32→20	39→40	51→60	32	159/210/240	82	282	7	14	44%	6%	16	-4.1	185/233/260	75	341	5	19	44%	6%	30	-3.1	160/206/212	51	307	3	30	46%	5%	4	-1.8
✕Cole Brannen 2021 · A	22	36→31	34→40	51→50	36	172/222/221	49	277	2	15	37%	6%	15	-4.1	174/243/257	83	266	6	11	34%	8%	35	-2.8	113/199/181	68	170	5	10	34%	10%	-3	-2.4
✕Billy Cooke 2019 · A	23	33	35→30	46→50	37	158/235/210	51	276	3	12	41%	7%	20	-3.8	196/266/271	75	304	5	14	34%	6%	49	-1.8	209/280/267	58	308	0	30	29%	5%	51	-0.3
✕Casey Martin 2023 · A	24	30→31	40	51→50	36	158/209/247	88	227	7	14	33%	5%	18	-3.9	165/218/263	98	256	10	15	38%	5%	26	-3.4	147/202/242	95	231	12	16	41%	6%	12	-2.9
✕Robby Martin Jr. 2023 · A	23	35	39→40	42→50	31	172/216/258	86	296	6	7	43%	5%	23	-3.6	198/238/286	88	290	8	11	33%	5%	40	-2.4	198/236/280	82	276	8	13	30%	4%	34	-1.4
✕Osmy Gregorio 2021 · A	23	35→41	38→30	51→50	37	175/229/245	70	268	6	12	35%	6%	25	-3.5	189/229/259	70	281	5	12	33%	5%	28	-3.2	189/225/252	63	272	4	13	31%	4%	21	-1.9
✕Arbert Cipion 2022 · A	22	31	39→40	52→55	33	141/217/223	81	314	7	17	53%	8%	17	-4.0	179/239/270	91	295	7	17	39%	6%	37	-2.7	167/223/257	90	255	8	23	36%	6%	23	-2.1
✕Robert Ramirez 2014 · A	22	34	37→45	47→40	32	170/202/244	73	259	5	8	36%	4%	12	-4.4	195/233/306	111	309	8	4	38%	4%	42	-2.3	193/230/326	133	307	10	2	39%	3%	44	-0.8
✕Jeren Kendall 2019 · A	23	32→23	41→50	53→60	34	164/219/261	97	284	9	23	44%	6%	25	-3.5	167/239/307	140	311	17	22	48%	8%	47	-1.9	132/218/273	141	245	18	30	51%	9%	28	-1.7
✕Caberea Weaver 2023 · A	23	32	40	53→55	26	153/205/235	82	317	9	19	52%	5%	13	-4.3	185/230/274	89	346	9	15	47%	5%	33	-2.9	173/210/252	78	320	9	16	47%	3%	16	-2.2
✕Cameron Conner 2011 · A	23	38	37→40	56→55	31	172/225/246	75	326	3	14	46%	6%	24	-3.6	190/247/264	74	361	4	15	45%	6%	38	-2.6	168/228/221	54	340	4	26	48%	6%	16	-1.2
✕Franklin Romero 2011 · A	23	36	38→40	47→50	25	175/204/257	82	300	6	8	43%	2%	17	-4.0	186/212/255	69	305	4	15	39%	2%	19	-3.9	178/198/237	59	289	2	20	38%	1%	5	-2.6
✕Stantrel Smith 2007 · A	23	38	37→40	50	31	187/210/260	73	276	5	11	34%	3%	20	-3.8	197/227/286	89	278	8	16	31%	3%	34	-2.8	181/205/268	87	249	9	22	31%	2%	18	-2.2
✕Taylor Zeutenhorst 2015 · A	23	39	36→30	49→40	32	174/226/241	67	333	4	5	46%	6%	22	-3.7	188/235/261	73	295	5	6	36%	5%	32	-3.0	168/208/229	61	249	5	4	33%	4%	9	-1.9
✕Neil Walton 2007 · A	23	36→32	35→30	48→50	35	176/222/234	57	271	3	12	35%	5%	19	-3.9	198/242/272	74	292	4	11	32%	5%	37	-2.6	200/244/274	74	288	3	10	30%	5%	34	-1.6
✕Blake Brown 2014 · A	23	35→41	37→40	47→50	32	157/220/228	71	320	5	10	49%	7%	17	-4.0	191/261/279	88	336	6	12	41%	8%	48	-1.9	185/265/275	90	314	6	15	39%	9%	46	-1.5
✕Champ Stuart 2016 · A	23	36→37	36→30	57→60	35	161/230/221	60	314	4	21	46%	8%	20	-3.8	176/239/252	76	320	6	29	43%	7%	32	-3.0	168/234/244	76	296	7	36	43%	7%	25	-2.0
✕Alex McClure 2012 · A	23	37→35	35→30	48→50	35	180/225/231	52	270	3	15	33%	4%	20	-3.8	185/223/234	49	281	2	12	33%	4%	19	-3.9	178/212/214	36	270	1	11	33%	3%	6	-3.0
✕Colin Roberson 2006 · A	23	37	37→45	46→55	31	179/215/249	70	299	5	7	41%	4%	19	-3.9	182/217/268	86	306	6	12	40%	4%	26	-3.4	166/198/257	91	275	7	16	41%	4%	11	-1.8