Luis Moreno

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 28 RHP 5'8" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	21	109	4.77	3.76	23.2%	9.8%	—	K 18.9% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.81
2025	26	MIX2 levels	40	7	80	5.38	3.61	21.8%	11.0%	—	K 18.0% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.99
2026	27	AAMIA	25	16	90	7.07	5.60	14.5%	12.1%	—	K 11.7% · BB 13.3% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	11	11	69	5.72	5.72	13.5%	12.6%	-0.6
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIA	3	3	21	5.66	5.71	14.2%	12.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIA	5	5	32	5.69	5.78	14.6%	12.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Luis Niebla (age 26) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.72

FIP5.72

K%13.5%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	13	10	43	192	45	24	0	77%	3.3	15.9%	15.6%	0.3%	0.0%	4.43	3.73	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	13	10	43	192	45	24	0	77%	3.3	23.4%	12.5%	10.9%	0.0%	4.43	2.68	—
2021	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	12	73	339	64	56	9	57%	3.5	14.0%	19.5%	-5.5%	3.5%	5.42	6.31	—
2021	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	21	12	73	339	64	56	9	57%	3.5	18.9%	16.5%	2.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.25	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	117	485	107	43	8	68%	4.7	16.8%	10.3%	6.4%	2.2%	2.84	4.22	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	117	485	107	43	8	68%	4.7	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	1.6%	2.84	3.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	85%	4.7	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.77	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	85%	4.7	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	2.2%	4.92	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.77	4.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.77	4.81	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.4%	4.77	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	1.8%	5.38	3.99	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	1.8%	5.38	3.99	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	1.7%	5.38	3.61	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	11.7%	13.3%	-1.6%	4.3%	7.07	6.14	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	11.7%	13.3%	-1.6%	4.3%	7.07	6.14	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	14.5%	12.1%	2.4%	3.6%	7.07	5.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	11	11	69	291	39	37	9	100%	6.3	13.5%	12.6%	0.9%	3.2%	5.72	5.72	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	66	280	40	35	9	100%	6.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	3.4%	5.66	5.71	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	62	263	38	33	9	100%	6.2	14.6%	12.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.69	5.78	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	21	89	13	11	3	100%	7.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	3.4%	5.66	5.71	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	32	135	20	17	5	100%	6.4	14.6%	12.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.69	5.78	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	222	32	28	8	100%	5.9	14.4%	12.5%	1.9%	3.5%	5.68	5.37	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	122	106	30	100%	6.0	14.4%	12.5%	1.9%	3.5%	5.68	5.37	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		178	105	636	2827	463	357	82	59%	3.6	16.4%	12.6%	3.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	33	200	889	146	112	26	59%	3.6	16.4%	12.6%	3.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.72	13.5%	12.6%	3.2%	—	5.74	14.4%	1.9%	128	+0.02	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	79
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	75
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	73
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	73
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	73
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	73
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	72
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	71
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	71
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	14.1%	12.5%	1.31	5.69
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*