Bernie Martinez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Bernie Martinez P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%20.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	1	36	143	43	4	4	7%	2.6	27.0%	1.5%	25.5%	0.0%	3.72	1.01	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	1	36	143	43	4	4	7%	2.6	30.1%	2.8%	27.3%	2.8%	3.72	2.49	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	6	57	259	52	23	15	21%	2.0	15.4%	11.0%	4.4%	6.9%	7.31	6.95	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	6	57	259	52	23	15	21%	2.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	5.8%	7.31	5.92	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	7	0	9	36	14	0	1	0%	1.3	38.9%	0.0%	38.9%	2.8%	5.00	1.34	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	7	0	9	36	14	0	1	0%	1.3	38.9%	0.0%	38.9%	2.8%	5.00	1.43	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	9	59	262	50	18	9	30%	2.0	14.8%	6.7%	8.1%	4.1%	6.75	4.96	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	9	59	262	50	18	9	30%	2.0	14.8%	6.7%	8.1%	4.1%	6.75	4.96	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	9	59	262	50	18	9	30%	2.0	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	3.4%	6.75	4.31	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	1	0	2	6	2	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	1	0	2	6	2	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	1	0	2	6	2	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	33	0	35	148	30	13	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.21	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	77	31	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		80	16	162	706	133	50	30	20%	2.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	6.10	4.70	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	20	200	870	164	62	36	20%	2.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	6.10	4.70	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bernie Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.6%	8.1%	3.0%	—	4.59	20.5%	12.1%	35	+0.16	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	76
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	76
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	76
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	75
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	75
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	75
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	75
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.6%	8.3%	1.21	4.47
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92