Rhylan Thomas
CF Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 501 | .287/.338/.382 | 6 | 21 | 78 | — | .273/.310/.348 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAASEA | 618 | .325/.383/.411 | 7 | 35 | 99 | — | .308/.352/.372 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/ATOR | 263 | .288/.345/.347 | 2 | 8 | 70 | — | .259/.302/.300 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBTOR | 16 | .273/.315/.338 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBTOR | 59 | .269/.313/.337 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 17 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 250 | 77 | 327 | 100 | 18 | 18 | 176 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 41 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 366 | 286 | 652 | 29 | 273 | 5 | 12 | 311 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 59 | 51 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 353 | 431 | 392 | 823 | 39 | 391 | 8 | 12 | 372 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 148 | 126 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 341 | 435 | 429 | 864 | 87 | 357 | 7 | 13 | 391 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 139 | 122 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 303 | 375 | 434 | 809 | 131 | 327 | 9 | 10 | 354 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 392 | 360 | 100 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 36 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 278 | 326 | 375 | 701 | 97 | 294 | 9 | 7 | 312 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 109 | 96 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 323 | 381 | 406 | 787 | 83 | 369 | 12 | 7 | 343 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 547 | 178 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 325 | 383 | 411 | 795 | 86 | 332 | 5 | 7 | 349 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 245 | 219 | 62 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 283 | 342 | 338 | 680 | 55 | 305 | 10 | 8 | 305 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 18 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 353 | 389 | 471 | 859 | 118 | 400 | 11 | 6 | 383 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 17 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 71 | 259 | 87 | 24 | 12 | 127 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 41 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 293 | 243 | 536 | 27 | 210 | 7 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 59 | 53 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 358 | 414 | 396 | 810 | 38 | 386 | 10 | 8 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 148 | 133 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 293 | 361 | 368 | 729 | 75 | 308 | 9 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 139 | 126 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 301 | 357 | 659 | 111 | 264 | 14 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 392 | 368 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 258 | 293 | 332 | 624 | 73 | 276 | 11 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 109 | 98 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 327 | 371 | 408 | 780 | 82 | 356 | 14 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 562 | 173 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 37 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 308 | 352 | 372 | 724 | 64 | 309 | 6 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 245 | 226 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 257 | 300 | 292 | 592 | 35 | 280 | 12 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 18 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 294 | 333 | 412 | 745 | 118 | 342 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 58 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 246 | 176 | 422 | 20 | 182 | 12 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 58 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 333 | 229 | 562 | 21 | 233 | 9 | 14 | 271 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 346 | 313 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 281 | 340 | 355 | 695 | 73 | 312 | 11 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 346 | 299 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 328 | 411 | 425 | 835 | 97 | 351 | 8 | 12 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 466 | 125 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 58 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 268 | 305 | 341 | 647 | 73 | 297 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 501 | 456 | 131 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 49 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 287 | 338 | 382 | 720 | 94 | 309 | 10 | 7 | 318 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 562 | 173 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 37 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 308 | 352 | 372 | 724 | 64 | 320 | 6 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 547 | 178 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 325 | 383 | 411 | 795 | 86 | 332 | 5 | 7 | 349 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 243 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 259 | 302 | 300 | 603 | 41 | 290 | 12 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 263 | 236 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 288 | 345 | 347 | 692 | 59 | 311 | 10 | 8 | 310 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 58 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 246 | 173 | 419 | 19 | 174 | 12 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 346 | 315 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 279 | 340 | 352 | 693 | 73 | 304 | 11 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 471 | 125 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 58 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 305 | 338 | 643 | 72 | 293 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 575 | 173 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 37 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 301 | 352 | 363 | 715 | 63 | 309 | 6 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 246 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 256 | 302 | 297 | 599 | 41 | 284 | 12 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 471 | 125 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 58 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 305 | 338 | 643 | 72 | 293 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 618 | 575 | 173 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 37 | 6 | 35 | 8 | 301 | 352 | 363 | 715 | 63 | 309 | 6 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 246 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 256 | 302 | 297 | 599 | 41 | 284 | 12 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 10% | 313 | 292 | 79 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 39 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 272 | 314 | 337 | 652 | 66 | 304 | 12 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 315 | 338 | 654 | 66 | 305 | 12 | 6 | 295 | 85 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 31% | 189 | 176 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 268 | 312 | 336 | 648 | 67 | 303 | 13 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 31% | 59 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 269 | 313 | 337 | 650 | 67 | 304 | 14 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 59 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 288 | 286 | 574 | 36 | 292 | 14 | 5 | 293 | 85 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 617 | 154 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 88 | 0 | 22 | 11 | 250 | 288 | 285 | 573 | 36 | 291 | 14 | 5 | 293 | 85 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2130 | 1956 | 543 | 78 | 3 | 13 | 119 | 216 | 13 | 84 | 35 | 278 | 323 | 340 | 664 | 63 | 304 | 10 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 166 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 66 | 4 | 26 | 11 | 278 | 323 | 342 | 665 | 64 | 304 | 10 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -12 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 245 PAwOBA .302 → .270 (−32)K% 9.8% → 11.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.018 | 25.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.018 | 2.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .302 → .270; ISO .055 → .044; BABIP .305 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 PAwOBA .372 → .301 (−71)K% 11.1% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 23.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 10.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .301; ISO .118 → .091; BABIP .400 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 618 PAwOBA .343 → .315 (−29)K% 5.2% → 6.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.18% | ÷1.035 | ×1.200 | — | — | 6.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.35% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 26.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.66% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.19% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.033 | 0.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.204 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .343 → .315; ISO .086 → .069; BABIP .332 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 392 PAwOBA .305 → .271 (−34)K% 9.2% → 11.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.63% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.77% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 22.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.25% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.142 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .305 → .271; ISO .097 → .074; BABIP .294 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 109 PAwOBA .337 → .324 (−14)K% 11.9% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.93% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.34% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.71% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 27.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.64% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 8.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .337 → .324; ISO .083 → .079; BABIP .369 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 148 PAwOBA .384 → .319 (−65)K% 6.8% → 8.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.76% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 8.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.84% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 27.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.31% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .384 → .319; ISO .087 → .072; BABIP .357 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 139 PAwOBA .350 → .275 (−75)K% 9.4% → 13.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.35% | ÷0.947 | ×1.360 | — | — | 13.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.94% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .275; ISO .131 → .099; BABIP .327 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 59 PAwOBA .363 → .345 (−18)K% 8.5% → 10.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.78% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 34.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .363 → .345; ISO .039 → .035; BABIP .391 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).