Tyler Burch prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tyler Burch P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	44	182	64	14	8	0%	1.2	29.8%	7.6%	22.2%	5.5%	4.12	4.56	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	44	182	64	14	8	0%	1.2	35.2%	7.7%	27.5%	4.4%	4.12	3.51	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	33	0	45	203	45	16	10	0%	1.4	18.0%	8.7%	9.3%	5.1%	5.40	5.46	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	33	0	45	203	45	16	10	0%	1.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	4.9%	5.40	5.06	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	26	0	41	183	34	21	5	0%	1.6	15.0%	12.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.07	4.92	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	26	0	41	183	34	21	5	0%	1.6	15.0%	12.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.07	4.92	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	26	0	41	183	34	21	5	0%	1.6	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	2.7%	3.07	4.56	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	9	41	9	1	0	12%	1.2	22.0%	2.4%	19.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.56	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	9	41	9	1	0	12%	1.2	22.0%	2.4%	19.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.56	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	9	41	9	1	0	12%	1.2	22.0%	2.4%	19.5%	0.0%	4.82	1.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	22	0	23	98	20	10	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.82	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	86	29	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		103	1	140	612	129	55	25	1%	1.4	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	4.1%	4.24	4.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	874	185	79	36	1%	1.4	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	4.1%	4.24	4.73	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Burch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.82	20.5%	9.9%	23	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	83
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	81