Ryan Brown

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ROKOAK	5	0	8	5.62	4.10	11.4%	2.9%	—	K 11.4% · BB 2.9% · FIP 4.07
2024	23	MIX2 levels	24	7	73	4.91	2.53	26.8%	7.7%	—	K 20.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.11
2026	25	A+OAK	27	0	34	6.88	6.07	12.2%	4.9%	—	K 9.4% · BB 5.6% · FIP 6.78
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	22	0	23	4.97	4.97	14.8%	6.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBOAK	10	0	11	4.93	4.94	15.7%	7.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRob Scahill (age 26) · Geoff Geary (age 27) · Rob Griswold (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%14.8%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	5	0	8	35	4	1	1	0%	1.6	11.4%	2.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.62	4.07	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	5	0	8	35	4	1	1	0%	1.6	11.4%	2.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.62	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	1.2%	4.91	3.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	1.2%	4.91	3.11	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	26.8%	7.7%	19.0%	1.3%	4.91	2.53	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	9.4%	5.6%	3.8%	6.9%	6.88	6.78	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	9.4%	5.6%	3.8%	6.9%	6.88	6.78	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	12.2%	4.9%	7.3%	5.5%	6.88	6.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	22	0	23	97	14	7	3	0%	1.0	14.8%	6.8%	8.0%	3.4%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	29	0	30	127	20	9	4	0%	1.0	15.7%	7.1%	8.5%	3.4%	4.93	4.94	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	11	46	7	3	2	0%	1.1	15.7%	7.1%	8.5%	3.4%	4.93	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	7	3	2	0%	1.0	15.7%	7.1%	8.5%	3.4%	4.93	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	127	54	36	0%	1.1	15.7%	7.1%	8.5%	3.4%	4.93	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		56	7	115	509	82	37	16	12%	2.1	16.2%	7.2%	8.9%	3.1%	5.54	4.36	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	12	200	883	143	64	27	12%	2.1	16.2%	7.2%	8.9%	3.1%	5.54	4.36	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	14.8%	6.8%	3.4%	—	4.94	15.7%	8.5%	30	-0.03	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2013 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	13.4%	5.4%	3.0%	.302	3.73	16.6%	8.3%	108	-0.55	3.06	250	89
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	87
Rob Griswold R 2024 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	13.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.297	4.73	8.3%	1.3%	50	+0.10	3.57	203	85
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	84
Chad Paronto R 2001 · 5.28 FIP	26	SU	5.28	12.5%	8.6%	3.9%	.292	3.73	14.9%	8.4%	36	-1.55	3.65	160	83
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	83
Hector Ambriz R 2010 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	16.5%	7.1%	4.5%	.360	4.28	19.5%	10.8%	56	-0.79	2.24	259	83
Frank Herrmann R 2010 · 4.38 FIP	26	SU	4.38	12.7%	4.8%	3.2%	.280	3.90	15.0%	9.2%	76	-0.48	2.92	219	83
Ronnie Shaban R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	14.1%	5.3%	3.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	104	83
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	82
Tyler Higgins R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	15.5%	7.2%	2.9%	.312	5.24	23.0%	16.1%	81	+0.96	3.53	290	82
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	81
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	81
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Derek Self R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	15.1%	8.1%	1.8%	.331	4.73	13.7%	9.0%	189	+0.89	3.82	302	81
Cesar Gomez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	15.7%	9.1%	2.9%	.338	5.17	14.1%	5.8%	63	+0.67	4.11	345	81
David Herndon R 2011 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	16.0%	7.0%	3.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	109	80
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	80
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	15.3%	7.0%	1.33	4.95
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*