Peyton Alford

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AASEA	43	0	57	2.20	3.01	29.3%	10.7%	—	K 23.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.08
2025	27	AASEA	43	0	56	4.18	3.49	28.3%	11.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.78
2026	28	MIX2 levels	46	1	61	3.08	3.03	31.6%	10.3%	—	K 26.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.48
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	66	0	69	4.36	4.36	25.6%	10.8%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSEA	23	0	24	4.46	4.53	25.0%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSEA	31	0	33	4.61	4.71	24.5%	11.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Yuki Matsui (age 28) · Kyle Regnault (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	12.2%	6.30	8.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	30.0%	7.8%	22.2%	6.7%	6.30	5.35	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	22.8%	17.8%	5.0%	1.3%	5.72	4.13	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	29.1%	15.8%	13.2%	1.1%	5.72	3.29	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	12.4%	15.7%	2.5%	2.83	3.69	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	36.4%	10.8%	25.6%	2.1%	2.83	2.53	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	1.9%	2.20	3.01	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	28.3%	11.0%	17.3%	2.5%	4.18	3.49	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.08	3.48	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.08	3.48	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	31.6%	10.3%	21.3%	2.4%	3.08	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	66	0	69	291	74	31	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	272	68	30	9	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	57	0	60	254	62	28	9	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.61	4.71	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	23	0	24	101	25	11	3	0%	1.0	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	31	0	33	139	34	16	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.61	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	240	59	27	8	0%	1.1	24.7%	11.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.55	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	95	28	0%	1.1	24.7%	11.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.55	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		222	3	299	1255	309	156	41	1%	1.3	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	3.2%	3.79	4.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	839	207	105	27	1%	1.3	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	3.2%	3.79	4.38	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	25.6%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.62	24.7%	13.7%	125	+0.26	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	85
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	82
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	81
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	79
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	79
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	78
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	78
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	77
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	77
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	77
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	76
Armando Almanza L 2002 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	30.0%	11.6%	4.2%	.272	5.01	21.8%	12.0%	62	+0.67	2.90	211	75
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	74
Damaso Marte L 2004 · 4.27 FIP	29	SU	4.27	22.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.236	3.28	25.9%	15.1%	149	-0.99	2.41	495	74
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	73
Vic Darensbourg L 2000 · 3.93 FIP	29	SU	3.93	21.5%	9.9%	2.5%	.298	4.26	15.3%	9.6%	97	+0.33	2.94	287	73
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	72
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	72
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	25.0%	10.9%	1.25	4.47
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*