Adam McKillican prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Adam McKillican P ACL Rockies

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	11	57	9	3	0	0%	1.8	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%	7.36	2.43	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	11	57	9	3	0	0%	1.8	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%	7.36	2.28	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	32	0	44	181	48	18	2	0%	1.4	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	1.0%	1.64	3.40	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	32	0	44	181	48	18	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	1.1%	1.64	2.74	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	0	33	155	33	14	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.7%	6.21	4.94	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	0	33	155	33	14	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.7%	6.21	4.94	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	25	0	33	155	33	14	5	0%	1.3	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.2%	6.21	4.33	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	5	18	5	3	1	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.79	5.91	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	5	18	5	3	1	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.79	5.91	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	5	18	5	3	1	0%	1.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.79	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	9.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	67	33	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		67	0	93	411	78	42	9	0%	1.4	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	2.1%	4.16	3.96	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	884	167	91	19	0%	1.4	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	2.1%	4.16	3.96	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam McKillican (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.4%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.64	21.4%	11.8%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	85
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	82
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	82
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	80
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	80
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80