Montana Semmel — OGILVIE

Montana Semmel P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%21.7%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	6	0	9	38	4	4	0	0%	1.6	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	2.89	3.54	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	6	0	9	38	4	4	0	0%	1.6	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	2.89	3.53	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	16	0	22	83	23	5	1	0%	1.4	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	1.6%	2.08	3.33	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	16	0	22	83	23	5	1	0%	1.4	27.7%	6.0%	21.7%	1.2%	2.08	2.27	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	32	147	42	12	5	0%	1.3	20.3%	10.0%	10.4%	3.8%	6.12	4.74	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	32	147	42	12	5	0%	1.3	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%	3.4%	6.12	3.63	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	28	0	43	197	40	29	5	0%	1.5	15.0%	17.4%	-2.3%	3.4%	6.33	5.88	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	28	0	43	197	40	29	5	0%	1.5	15.0%	17.4%	-2.3%	3.4%	6.33	5.88	—
2024	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	28	0	43	197	40	29	5	0%	1.5	20.3%	14.7%	5.6%	2.5%	6.33	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	15	74	18	12	0	10%	1.5	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	0.0%	5.87	3.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	15	74	18	12	0	10%	1.5	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	0.0%	5.87	3.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	15	74	18	12	0	10%	1.5	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	0.0%	5.87	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	24	0	25	106	23	13	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.5%	9.1%	3.0%	4.89	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	24	0	25	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.81	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	110	18	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		85	1	121	539	97	71	14	1%	1.4	18.0%	13.2%	4.8%	2.5%	5.19	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	888	160	117	22	1%	1.4	18.0%	13.2%	4.8%	2.5%	5.19	4.63	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Montana Semmel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	21.7%	12.5%	3.0%	—	4.81	22.0%	9.9%	25	-0.08	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	86
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	86
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	86
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	85
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	85
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.8%	12.3%	1.16	4.86
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19