Jake Garland

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 260 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	27	16	108	3.82	4.18	15.2%	8.2%	—	K 11.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.78
2025	24	A+OAK	20	12	77	4.19	3.71	17.0%	6.8%	—	K 13.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.60
2026	25	MIX3 levels	41	2	77	3.62	3.96	16.1%	8.4%	—	K 13.3% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	67	0	70	5.28	5.28	10.9%	9.3%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBOAK	28	0	29	5.21	5.23	12.1%	9.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBOAK	40	0	42	5.20	5.24	12.9%	9.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control55Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Joel De La Cruz (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%10.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%1.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	1	3	17	4	1	0	33%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	12.00	1.86	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	1	3	17	4	1	0	33%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	12.00	1.43	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	117	517	90	35	6	79%	4.9	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	1.2%	5.40	3.63	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	117	517	90	35	6	79%	4.9	17.4%	6.8%	10.6%	1.2%	5.40	3.13	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	11.3%	9.0%	2.3%	2.7%	3.82	4.78	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	11.3%	9.0%	2.3%	2.7%	3.82	4.78	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	15.2%	8.2%	6.9%	2.4%	3.82	4.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.60	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.60	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	17.0%	6.8%	10.2%	2.2%	4.19	3.71	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	2	77	347	56	29	7	5%	1.9	13.3%	8.2%	5.1%	2.3%	3.62	4.27	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	2	77	347	56	29	7	5%	1.9	13.3%	8.2%	5.1%	2.3%	3.62	4.27	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	2	77	347	56	29	7	5%	1.9	16.1%	8.4%	7.8%	2.0%	3.62	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	67	0	70	296	32	27	8	0%	1.0	10.9%	9.3%	1.6%	2.8%	5.28	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	69	291	35	27	8	0%	1.0	12.1%	9.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.23	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	64	0	67	282	36	27	8	0%	1.0	12.9%	9.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.20	5.24	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	61	0	64	270	35	26	8	0%	1.0	13.2%	9.7%	3.4%	3.1%	5.26	5.33	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	28	0	29	122	15	11	4	0%	1.0	12.1%	9.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.23	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	40	0	42	177	23	17	5	0%	1.1	12.9%	9.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.20	5.24	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	26	19	6	0%	1.0	13.2%	9.7%	3.4%	3.1%	5.26	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	118	497	64	47	15	0%	1.1	12.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.0%	5.23	4.89	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	109	80	25	0%	1.1	12.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.0%	5.23	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		115	50	382	1667	213	137	36	43%	3.3	12.8%	8.2%	4.6%	2.2%	4.40	4.25	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	26	200	872	112	72	19	43%	3.3	12.8%	8.2%	4.6%	2.2%	4.40	4.25	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Garland (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	10.9%	9.3%	2.8%	—	5.27	12.7%	3.2%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	84
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	83
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	82
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	82
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
Jake McCasland R 2018 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	12.8%	9.5%	2.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	367	80
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	80
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Kelvis Valerio R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	11.7%	7.1%	2.1%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	266	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	78
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	12.2%	9.5%	1.14	5.24
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*