Jacob Kostyshock prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jacob Kostyshock P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%19.3%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	3	2	2	15	0	2	1	67%	0.8	0.0%	13.3%	-13.3%	6.7%	15.43	8.45	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	3	2	2	15	0	2	1	67%	0.8	0.0%	13.3%	-13.3%	6.7%	15.43	11.24	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	25	112	27	13	1	0%	1.1	16.2%	18.6%	-2.4%	1.8%	5.40	5.06	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	25	112	27	13	1	0%	1.1	16.2%	18.6%	-2.4%	1.8%	5.40	5.06	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	25	112	27	13	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	0.9%	5.40	3.02	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	60	9	11	3	0%	1.2	12.0%	20.4%	-8.4%	7.3%	11.70	8.66	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	60	9	11	3	0%	1.2	12.0%	20.4%	-8.4%	7.3%	11.70	8.66	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	10	60	9	11	3	0%	1.2	15.0%	18.3%	-3.3%	5.0%	11.70	8.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	3.1%	5.33	5.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	16	12	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.31	5.36	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.31	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.31	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	128	32	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.7%	5.8%	3.3%	5.31	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		34	2	37	187	25	35	7	6%	1.1	13.6%	18.8%	-5.2%	3.9%	7.71	6.49	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	11	200	1002	136	188	39	6%	1.1	13.6%	18.8%	-5.2%	3.9%	7.71	6.49	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kostyshock (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	19.3%	13.9%	3.1%	—	5.36	19.4%	5.8%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	77
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	77
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	77
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	77
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	76
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	76
Brandon Gomes R 2012 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	18.1%	10.8%	2.5%	.246	4.36	20.7%	15.1%	112	+0.05	3.48	190	76