Ryan Smith (P, Salt Lake Bees) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ryan Smith P Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%19.6%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	23	129	534	153	33	20	96%	5.4	22.5%	6.9%	15.7%	4.5%	4.24	4.55	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	23	129	534	153	33	20	96%	5.4	28.7%	6.2%	22.5%	3.7%	4.24	3.51	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	32	10	79	358	81	35	17	31%	2.5	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	5.3%	6.75	5.65	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	32	10	79	358	81	35	17	31%	2.5	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	4.7%	6.75	5.18	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	14	0	25	121	18	23	1	0%	1.8	12.8%	17.1%	-4.3%	0.9%	6.48	4.68	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	14	0	25	121	18	23	1	0%	1.8	12.8%	17.1%	-4.3%	0.9%	6.48	4.68	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	14	0	25	121	18	23	1	0%	1.8	14.9%	19.0%	-4.1%	0.8%	6.48	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	0	20	84	17	10	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	4	1	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	109	27	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		70	33	233	1013	207	94	44	47%	3.3	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	4.4%	5.33	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	28	200	870	178	81	38	47%	3.3	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	4.4%	5.33	4.95	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	19.6%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.97	19.7%	8.2%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	71
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	70
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	69
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	68
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	68
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	67
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	66
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	66
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	65
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	65
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	65
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	65
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	63
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	63
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	63
Manny Banuelos L 2019 · 5.89 FIP	28	SP-	5.89	18.7%	12.8%	5.0%	.322	2.95	22.9%	12.0%	72	-2.94	2.95	486	62
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	62
John Parke L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP-	4.35	15.5%	10.1%	2.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	655	62
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	61
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	61