Austin Roberts

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	50	0	67	2.28	2.64	32.4%	11.1%	—	K 26.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.25
2025	27	MIX2 levels	40	1	58	4.21	3.46	23.9%	10.2%	—	K 20.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.96
2026	28	MIX2 levels	43	1	58	3.26	4.15	32.9%	12.9%	—	K 26.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.10
2027PROJ	29	MLBTEX	38	0	40	4.78	4.78	23.8%	11.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBTEX	11	0	12	4.84	4.91	23.4%	12.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Coleman Huntley III (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	288	103	25	15	0%	1.7	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	5.3%	4.46	5.04	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	67	288	103	25	15	0%	1.7	35.8%	8.7%	27.1%	5.2%	4.46	4.06	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	3	48	220	56	19	9	8%	1.3	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	4.5%	4.28	5.05	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	37	3	48	220	56	19	9	8%	1.3	25.5%	8.6%	16.8%	4.1%	4.28	4.38	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	72	326	75	35	9	0%	1.6	19.2%	10.6%	8.6%	3.0%	5.72	4.47	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	72	326	75	35	9	0%	1.6	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.8%	5.72	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	26.8%	11.3%	15.4%	1.8%	2.28	3.25	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	26.8%	11.3%	15.4%	1.8%	2.28	3.25	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	32.4%	11.1%	21.4%	1.5%	2.28	2.64	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	2.4%	4.21	3.96	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	2.4%	4.21	3.96	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	2.0%	4.21	3.46	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	58	255	84	33	10	2%	1.3	26.9%	13.6%	13.3%	4.6%	3.26	5.10	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	58	255	84	33	10	2%	1.3	26.9%	13.6%	13.3%	4.6%	3.26	5.10	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	58	255	84	33	10	2%	1.3	32.9%	12.9%	20.0%	3.9%	3.26	4.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TEX	38	0	40	169	40	20	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.78	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	36	0	38	160	37	19	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	11	0	12	51	12	6	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	12	6	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	101	34	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		254	5	370	1606	375	174	58	2%	1.5	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.6%	4.06	4.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	3	200	868	203	94	31	2%	1.5	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.6%	4.06	4.47	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.8%	11.9%	3.3%	—	4.91	23.4%	11.5%	38	+0.13	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	86
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	79
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	78
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	78
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	23.6%	11.9%	1.30	4.81
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16