Fraser Ellard

P Charlotte Knights

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	21	0	21	7.17	1.98	29.4%	11.8%	—	K 23.3% · BB 14.0% · FIP 2.91
2024	26	MIX2 levels	63	0	65	3.76	3.22	30.7%	10.5%	1.0	K 27.7% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.44
2025	27	MIX2 levels	41	3	42	5.57	4.55	28.7%	18.5%	-0.0	K 26.3% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	29	MLBCWS	61	0	64	4.72	4.84	27.4%	16.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCWS	21	0	22	4.87	5.00	26.3%	16.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCWS	30	0	31	5.03	5.18	25.3%	16.1%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%90

K%90

FB Velo55

xwOBA vs12

CompsDoug Creek (age 31) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Raul Valdes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.72

FIP4.84

K%27.4%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9034.1%

p9029.7%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

SL+1.3 (27%)

SI (15%)

CH (7%)

FB (67%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	98	27	10	1	0%	1.5	19.2%	14.6%	4.6%	1.7%	4.43	4.28	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	98	27	10	1	0%	1.5	27.6%	10.2%	17.3%	1.0%	4.43	2.56	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	252	58	35	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	1.0%	4.13	4.07	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	57	252	58	35	2	0%	1.2	23.0%	13.9%	9.1%	0.8%	4.13	3.36	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	21	102	30	12	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.0%	9.2%	0.0%	7.17	2.91	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	21	102	30	12	0	0%	1.0	29.4%	11.8%	17.6%	0.0%	7.17	1.98	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	27.7%	9.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.76	3.44	+0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	27.7%	9.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.76	3.44	+0.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	30.7%	10.5%	20.2%	2.5%	3.76	3.22	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	2.2%	5.57	4.32	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	2.2%	5.57	4.32	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	28.7%	18.5%	10.3%	2.6%	5.57	4.55	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	3	41	175	48	28	4	7%	1.0	27.4%	16.0%	11.4%	2.3%	3.95	4.08	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CWS	61	0	64	270	74	45	8	0%	1.0	27.4%	16.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.72	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	252	66	41	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	16.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.87	5.00	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	CWS	53	0	56	235	60	38	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.1%	9.2%	3.3%	5.03	5.18	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	24	15	3	0%	1.0	26.3%	16.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.87	5.00	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	31	131	33	21	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	16.1%	9.2%	3.3%	5.03	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	3	94	397	105	64	11	3%	1.0	26.5%	16.1%	10.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	6	200	848	224	137	23	3%	1.0	26.5%	16.1%	10.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		186	3	205	924	217	129	16	2%	1.1	23.5%	13.9%	9.5%	1.7%	4.65	3.83	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	3	200	901	212	126	16	2%	1.1	23.5%	13.9%	9.5%	1.7%	4.65	3.83	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fraser Ellard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	27.4%	16.7%	2.8%	—	5.09	25.8%	9.6%	115	+0.25	—	—	—
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	69
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	69
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	68
Armando Almanza L 2002 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	30.0%	11.6%	4.2%	.272	5.01	21.8%	12.0%	62	+0.67	2.90	211	67
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	67
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	67
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	66
Jack Taschner L 2007 · 3.69 FIP	29	SU	3.69	23.0%	12.2%	1.8%	.286	4.41	16.2%	5.2%	97	+0.72	3.14	189	66
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	65
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	65
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	65
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	65
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	64
Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	24.6%	14.1%	1.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	64
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	2.62	195	63
Damaso Marte L 2004 · 4.27 FIP	29	SU	4.27	22.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.236	3.28	25.9%	15.1%	149	-0.99	2.41	495	63
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	63
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	63
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	62
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	26.6%	16.6%	1.12	4.70
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*