Jesse Bergin

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	25	34	2.62	0.89	38.8%	3.7%	—	K 29.6% · BB 2.8% · FIP 0.95
2025	25	MIX2 levels	40	52	2.42	3.06	27.0%	9.5%	—	K 19.2% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	10	13	7.82	3.42	24.6%	11.5%	—	K 21.4% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.45
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	57	60	4.83	4.83	20.1%	11.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBMIN	20	21	4.83	4.86	20.3%	11.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBMIN	29	30	4.89	4.95	20.3%	11.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Ricky Stone (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	18	88	19	5	1	86%	2.6	8.9%	11.8%	-2.9%	2.9%	8.00	5.45	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	18	88	19	5	1	86%	2.6	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	1.1%	8.00	2.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	34	134	52	5	1	0%	1.4	29.6%	2.8%	26.8%	0.0%	2.62	0.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	34	134	52	5	1	0%	1.4	29.6%	2.8%	26.8%	0.0%	2.62	0.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	34	134	52	5	1	0%	1.4	38.8%	3.7%	35.1%	0.7%	2.62	0.89	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	211	57	20	4	0%	1.3	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	2.5%	2.42	4.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	211	57	20	4	0%	1.3	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	2.5%	2.42	4.15	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	52	211	57	20	4	0%	1.3	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	1.9%	2.42	3.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	61	15	7	1	0%	1.3	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.3%	7.82	4.45	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	61	15	7	1	0%	1.3	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.3%	7.82	4.45	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	61	15	7	1	0%	1.3	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	1.6%	7.82	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	57	0	60	253	51	29	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	244	50	28	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	55	233	47	27	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	20	0	21	89	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	26	15	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	44	25	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	97	27	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		82	6	117	494	101	45	9	7%	1.4	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	1.9%	3.92	3.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	10	200	844	173	76	16	7%	1.4	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	1.9%	3.92	3.55	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Bergin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.1%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.90	20.3%	8.9%	113	+0.07	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	89
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	87
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	20.3%	11.4%	1.17	4.85
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*