Dustin Saenz

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 197 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	13	13	43	6.54	3.50	15.1%	8.5%	—	K 11.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.52
2025	26	MIX2 levels	39	9	87	4.34	4.01	13.8%	5.9%	—	K 11.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.61
2026	27	MIX2 levels	18	0	28	4.45	4.12	16.0%	11.5%	—	K 14.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	10	10	59	5.33	5.33	10.6%	9.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTEX	3	3	18	5.31	5.36	11.6%	9.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTEX	4	4	27	5.37	5.46	12.2%	9.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control60Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEnrique Lechuga (age 29) · Everett Teaford (age 28) · Jordan Carr (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%10.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	13	60	16	4	0	33%	2.2	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	0.0%	4.72	2.81	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	13	60	16	4	0	33%	2.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	4.72	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	97	417	85	29	11	100%	4.6	15.3%	8.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.49	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	97	417	85	29	11	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.6%	4.73	3.72	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	123	503	97	31	10	92%	4.9	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	2.3%	3.43	3.93	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	123	503	97	31	10	92%	4.9	19.3%	6.2%	13.1%	2.0%	3.43	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	11.0%	11.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	6.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	11.0%	11.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	6.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	15.1%	8.5%	6.5%	1.0%	6.54	3.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	11.5%	6.3%	5.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	11.5%	6.3%	5.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	13.8%	5.9%	8.0%	2.4%	4.34	4.01	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	28	131	21	15	2	0%	1.6	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	1.3%	4.45	4.14	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	28	131	21	15	2	0%	1.6	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	1.3%	4.45	4.14	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	28	131	21	15	2	0%	1.6	16.0%	11.5%	4.6%	1.5%	4.45	4.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	10	10	59	249	26	23	7	100%	5.9	10.6%	9.4%	1.2%	2.8%	5.33	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	56	237	28	23	7	100%	6.2	11.6%	9.6%	2.0%	3.0%	5.31	5.36	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	223	27	22	7	100%	5.9	12.2%	9.8%	2.3%	3.2%	5.37	5.46	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	18	76	9	7	2	100%	6.0	11.6%	9.6%	2.0%	3.0%	5.31	5.36	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	27	114	14	11	4	100%	6.8	12.2%	9.8%	2.3%	3.2%	5.37	5.46	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	45	189	23	18	6	100%	6.4	11.9%	9.7%	2.2%	3.1%	5.35	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	103	81	27	100%	6.1	11.9%	9.7%	2.2%	3.1%	5.35	5.04	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		122	68	392	1686	234	135	41	56%	3.2	13.9%	8.0%	5.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.27	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	35	200	861	120	69	21	56%	3.2	13.9%	8.0%	5.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.27	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dustin Saenz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	10.6%	9.4%	2.8%	—	5.41	11.9%	2.2%	109	+0.08	—	—	—
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	84
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	73
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	70
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	69
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	69
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	69
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	68
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	68
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	67
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	67
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	66
Steven Moyers L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	28	SW	5.24	14.7%	8.1%	4.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	464	65
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	65
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	64
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	64
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	64
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	64
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	11.4%	9.6%	1.17	5.34
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Mike Barlow ('75-'81, -2 WAR*)	1.2	62	14.0%*	9.4%*	0.76*	4.97*