Roel Garcia III — OGILVIE

Roel Garcia III P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%19.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	13	55	23	3	1	0%	1.6	30.5%	4.6%	25.8%	2.7%	2.13	2.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	13	55	23	3	1	0%	1.6	41.8%	5.5%	36.4%	1.8%	2.13	1.21	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	20	14	80	341	80	37	9	70%	4.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.6%	3.1%	3.84	4.85	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	20	14	80	341	80	37	9	70%	4.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.6%	3.1%	3.84	4.85	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	20	14	80	341	80	37	9	70%	4.0	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.95	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.2%	4.30	4.87	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.2%	4.30	4.87	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	3.4%	4.30	3.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.3%	3.41	3.65	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.3%	3.41	3.65	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	2.4%	3.41	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	6.2%	6.90	6.85	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	6.2%	6.90	6.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	TB	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	5.1%	6.90	5.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	31	0	32	136	26	11	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.66	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	11	0	12	51	10	4	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	51	10	4	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	66	33	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		99	32	271	1156	202	108	45	32%	2.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.96	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	24	200	853	149	80	33	32%	2.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.96	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roel Garcia III (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	19.1%	8.2%	3.1%	—	4.66	19.4%	11.0%	32	+0.06	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	83
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	78
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	77
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	77
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	76
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	76
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	76
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	76
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	76
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	76
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	76
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	75
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	19.2%	8.3%	1.21	4.61
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97