Mario Zabala — OGILVIE

Mario Zabala P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 206 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 9 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%22.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	1	10	0	5	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	54.00	9.43	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	1	10	0	5	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	54.00	25.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	87	16	21	1	0%	1.2	13.8%	25.3%	-11.5%	2.0%	9.92	6.23	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	87	16	21	1	0%	1.2	13.8%	25.3%	-11.5%	2.0%	9.92	6.23	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	16	87	16	21	1	0%	1.2	18.4%	24.1%	-5.7%	1.1%	9.92	5.79	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	10	47	10	5	0	0%	1.6	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	0.0%	6.52	2.65	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	10	47	10	5	0	0%	1.6	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	0.0%	6.52	2.65	—
2025	23	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	10	47	10	5	0	0%	1.6	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	0.0%	6.52	2.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SD	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.73	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		22	0	27	144	22	32	2	0%	1.2	15.3%	22.2%	-7.0%	1.2%	9.79	5.28	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	1080	165	240	13	0%	1.2	15.3%	22.2%	-7.0%	1.2%	9.79	5.28	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mario Zabala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	22.9%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.73	23.2%	10.9%	20	-0.07	—	—	—
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	88
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	86
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	85
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	83
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Logan Boyer R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	26	SU	3.71	25.0%	12.3%	2.1%	.267	4.65	17.5%	3.5%	54	+0.94	3.71	121	83
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	82
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	82