Connor Dykstra

C Inland Empire 66ers

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs A K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	AModesto Nuts	232	.205/.358/.319	2	3	49	—	.155/.293/.237
2026	25	ASEA	251	.245/.401/.362	4	3	63	—	.184/.320/.272
2027PROJMLE	26	MLBSEA	301	.183/.275/.267	3	4	58	0.0
2028PROJ26% MLB	27	MLBSEA	21	.183/.275/.268	0	0	59	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

wOBA61

wRC+59

Chase%57

Speed51

Z-Con%50

BB%48

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRoman Hernandez (age 25) · Alberti Chavez (age 24) · Ben Verlander (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .273 / .265

PA71

HR1

K%32

BB%7

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	196	48	7	2	4	30	75	21	3	3	245	401	362	763	117	364	30	12	353	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	194	30	8	1	2	15	83	23	3	0	155	293	237	530	82	247	36	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	206	38	5	2	3	20	102	21	3	3	184	320	272	592	87	302	41	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	194	30	8	1	2	15	83	23	3	0	155	293	237	530	82	257	36	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	206	38	5	2	3	20	102	21	3	3	184	320	272	592	87	333	41	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	196	48	7	2	4	30	75	21	3	3	245	401	362	763	117	364	30	12	353	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	192	30	8	1	2	15	83	23	3	0	156	293	240	533	83	247	36	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	208	38	5	2	3	20	102	21	3	3	183	320	269	589	87	302	41	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	192	30	8	1	2	15	83	23	3	0	156	293	240	533	83	247	36	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	251	208	38	5	2	3	20	102	21	3	3	183	320	269	589	87	302	41	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	301	264	49	10	2	3	22	95	12	4	1	183	275	267	542	84	268	32	7	254	58	-15	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	26%	82	73	13	3	0	1	6	26	3	1	0	185	276	272	548	86	269	32	7	256	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	26%	21	18	3	1	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	183	275	268	543	85	266	33	10	254	59	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	21	18	3	1	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	167	286	222	508	56	273	33	10	254	57	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	93	31	0	0	62	217	31	0	0	167	286	223	509	56	274	33	10	254	57	-32	+0	+0	+12	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	636	536	92	18	3	7	46	233	50	8	3	172	297	256	553	84	283	37	7	252	57	-8	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	548	93	18	3	7	47	238	51	8	3	170	296	252	547	82	280	37	7	252	57	-32	+2	+0	+12	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 251 PAwOBA .350 → .261 (−90)K% 29.9% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.88%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	40.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.95%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.970	8.00%
HBP% /PA	8.37%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	6.33%
Singles /BIP	28.93%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.955	×0.970	24.66%
Doubles /BIP	5.79%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.955	×0.970	4.45%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.955	×0.970	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	2.57%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .350 → .261; ISO .117 → .086; BABIP .364 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 232 PAwOBA .314 → .240 (−74)K% 27.6% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.59%	÷1.045	×1.360	—	—	35.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.48%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.980	6.49%
HBP% /PA	9.91%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	7.58%
Singles /BIP	19.01%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.950	×0.980	16.45%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.067	×0.830	×0.950	×0.980	6.58%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷1.097	×0.910	×0.950	×0.980	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	1.65%	÷0.759	×0.800	—	×0.980	1.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .314 → .240; ISO .114 → .089; BABIP .303 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Dykstra (OGILVIE)	26	25	30	40	35	181/273/265	83	268	1	1	32%	7%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roman Hernandez 2013 · A	25	41	35→30	35→45	38	194/236/250	56	274	2	5	29%	5%	37	-3.3	214/258/283	69	301	3	8	28%	5%	53	-2.1	225/263/283	59	314	2	8	28%	4%	53	-1.1
✕Alberti Chavez 2019 · AA	24	38	36→30	39→50	34	186/228/241	55	281	4	5	34%	4%	32	-3.7	206/257/276	70	290	5	6	29%	5%	51	-2.2	200/251/246	46	278	3	3	27%	5%	41	-1.0
✕Ben Verlander 2017 · A	25	39→34	38→40	47→40	39	191/235/271	80	262	6	5	29%	5%	42	-2.9	205/256/286	81	285	5	6	28%	6%	53	-2.1	188/237/235	47	264	2	0	28%	6%	33	-1.1
✕Devin Hairston 2022 · AAA	26	34	39→30	49→40	36	171/221/252	81	272	7	7	38%	6%	32	-3.6	199/253/292	93	326	8	9	38%	6%	54	-2.0	177/231/243	66	320	3	3	43%	6%	32	-0.8
✕Webster Rivas 2017 · AA	26	43	37→40	39→40	42	207/247/282	75	258	4	4	21%	5%	49	-2.4	219/263/305	86	287	7	4	25%	5%	60	-1.6	208/282/293	85	269	8	1	24%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Ashley Graeter 2016 · A	26	44	39→40	46→45	38	212/250/296	84	279	6	9	26%	4%	53	-2.1	224/266/319	95	283	9	9	23%	5%	64	-1.3	228/270/326	98	280	10	8	22%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Matt Pita 2021 · A	24	38	37→50	49→55	36	183/235/261	77	267	3	10	31%	4%	40	-3.1	200/260/334	134	278	14	16	32%	5%	68	-1.0	183/246/324	141	255	15	27	33%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Richard Nunez 2019 · A	24	39	36→30	47→55	47	182/259/252	69	257	2	9	28%	9%	47	-2.5	206/271/297	91	286	6	6	28%	8%	62	-1.4	188/264/281	93	239	9	3	24%	9%	54	-0.3
✕Josh Richmond 2013 · A	24	34→40	41→45	48→45	36	175/225/277	101	253	8	8	34%	5%	40	-3.1	200/253/324	124	279	11	8	31%	5%	61	-1.5	202/257/338	136	275	13	7	30%	5%	63	-0.8
✕David Armendariz 2016 · A	24	39	38→45	44→45	39	188/238/266	78	265	5	8	30%	5%	42	-2.9	196/231/297	101	284	8	5	33%	3%	46	-2.6	180/200/289	110	259	9	0	34%	2%	30	-2.1
✕Steve Laurino 2017 · A	24	36	38→30	43→30	42	179/240/256	76	250	6	3	30%	7%	40	-3.0	189/243/275	86	288	8	5	35%	6%	46	-2.6	149/195/210	61	244	7	0	40%	4%	11	-1.5
✕Ryan Ripken 2019 · A	26	42→41	39→40	46→40	37	206/234/283	77	266	8	3	26%	3%	43	-2.8	204/235/291	87	290	8	4	31%	4%	46	-2.6	185/214/262	77	275	6	1	34%	3%	28	-1.5
✕Isaac Galloway 2016 · AAA	26	41→42	40→45	51→55	33	201/225/291	91	282	7	15	31%	3%	42	-2.9	215/259/331	116	287	12	24	29%	5%	65	-1.2	205/252/344	139	272	17	25	31%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Dean Espy 2015 · A	25	36	43→45	47→45	34	190/220/299	108	249	12	6	29%	3%	42	-2.9	197/241/298	101	256	10	8	27%	4%	51	-2.3	173/220/250	77	217	9	8	24%	4%	30	-1.4
✕Neil Medchill 2011 · A	24	35→28	43→45	44→45	34	175/233/280	105	299	12	7	44%	6%	45	-2.7	195/254/324	129	320	15	7	41%	7%	62	-1.4	194/253/324	129	310	16	5	41%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Sean Buckley 2015 · A	25	39→33	44→45	43→45	34	198/245/311	113	284	13	7	34%	4%	55	-1.9	214/266/310	96	300	8	6	30%	5%	63	-1.4	211/264/288	77	296	5	0	29%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Tim Turner 2006 · A	24	39	37→30	48→55	34	187/226/262	74	282	4	9	34%	4%	36	-3.4	193/238/263	70	367	5	14	46%	5%	41	-3.0	170/212/217	47	360	6	21	52%	4%	18	-1.8
✕Ryan Aguilar 2019 · A	24	35→40	39→45	51→50	40	173/237/256	83	269	6	6	36%	8%	40	-3.1	183/260/276	93	303	9	9	39%	8%	54	-2.0	181/274/286	106	291	12	12	39%	10%	59	-1.1
✕Justin Seager 2016 · A	24	40→44	36→40	45→30	37	189/249/256	67	290	4	4	34%	5%	45	-2.7	196/264/315	119	283	14	4	34%	7%	64	-1.3	176/259/321	145	223	22	0	31%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Drew Hedman 2011 · A	25	39	37→40	47→45	34	187/230/257	70	298	5	6	38%	5%	36	-3.3	193/258/295	102	281	9	9	33%	7%	57	-1.8	181/254/290	109	255	10	10	32%	7%	53	-1.2