Connor DykstraC
Inland Empire 66ers
Age 25
R/R
6'1" / 230 lbs
A
HR +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2028
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .275 / .313
PA180
HR3
K%30
BB%7
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
25→25
PWR
30→30
SPD
40→40
EYE
45↘35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $-3M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 232 | 193 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 81 | 23 | 3 | 0 | .155 | .297 | .238 | .536 | .083 | .255 | 35 | 7 | .248 | 48 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 29 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .214 | .241 | .250 | .491 | .036 | .375 | 41 | 0 | .190 | 4 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 151 | 136 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .206 | .280 | .324 | .604 | .118 | .280 | 30 | 7 | .270 | 65 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| TOT | 25 | MLB | SEA | 180 | 164 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .207 | .274 | .311 | .585 | .104 | .298 | 32 | 6 | .257 | 55 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB 10% | SEA | 233 | 208 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 69 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .207 | .286 | .327 | .613 | .120 | .282 | 30 | 7 | .277 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB 25% | SEA | 294 | 263 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 86 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .209 | .288 | .331 | .618 | .122 | .283 | 29 | 7 | .281 | 73 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB 36% | SEA | 335 | 300 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 97 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .210 | .286 | .333 | .619 | .123 | .283 | 29 | 7 | .282 | 74 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB 46% | SEA | 353 | 315 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 103 | 8 | 4 | 1 | .206 | .286 | .324 | .610 | .117 | .283 | 29 | 8 | .281 | 73 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB 55% | SEA | 365 | 326 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 108 | 8 | 4 | 0 | .209 | .287 | .325 | .612 | .117 | .281 | 30 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -12 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB 72% | SEA | 348 | 312 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 104 | 7 | 3 | 0 | .205 | .281 | .324 | .605 | .119 | .280 | 30 | 7 | .274 | 68 | -13 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB 90% | SEA | 325 | 290 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 99 | 7 | 3 | 0 | .203 | .283 | .317 | .600 | .114 | .278 | 30 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -13 | +1 | -4 | +6 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 291 | 261 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 91 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .192 | .270 | .291 | .561 | .100 | .276 | 31 | 8 | .264 | 60 | -13 | +1 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 246 | 221 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 79 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .195 | .270 | .294 | .565 | .100 | .274 | 32 | 7 | .258 | 55 | -12 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3173 | 2825 | 568 | 108 | 17 | 59 | 236 | 963 | 88 | 35 | 5 | .201 | .283 | .314 | .597 | .113 | .280 | 30 | 7 | .272 | 66 | -121 | +5 | -20 | +57 | +90 | 1.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 579 | 116 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 197 | 18 | 7 | 1 | .200 | .282 | .311 | .593 | .111 | .279 | 30 | 7 | .272 | 66 | -25 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +18 | 0.2 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 232 | 185 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 23 | 3 | 0 | .205 | .358 | .319 | .677 | .114 | .303 | 28 | 9 | .321 | 104 | +1 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Connor Dykstra (OGILVIE) | 25 | 25 | 30 | 40 | 35 | .201/.275/.313 | .112 | .280 | 3 | 3 | 30% | 7% | 65 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A |
25 | 40 | 41→40 | 44→45 | 43 | .198/.262/.299 | .100 | .269 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .191/.246/.291 | .100 | .279 | 10 | 6 | 33% | 6% | 45 | -2.1 | .147/.198/.242 | .094 | .211 | 11 | 0 | 36% | 5% | 8 | -1.4 |
|
✕Greg Thissen 2006 · A |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 41→45 | 39 | .198/.247/.307 | .109 | .266 | 11 | 6 | 30% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .203/.268/.298 | .095 | .268 | 8 | 7 | 26% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .198/.275/.281 | .083 | .259 | 7 | 7 | 25% | 9% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Scott Manea 2021 · A |
25 | 40→41 | 47→45 | 39→30 | 41 | .205/.282/.334 | .129 | .262 | 15 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .210/.295/.321 | .111 | .301 | 12 | 3 | 32% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .195/.289/.293 | .098 | .285 | 11 | 0 | 32% | 10% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2021 · A |
25 | 38 | 40 | 41→30 | 41 | .182/.271/.272 | .090 | .282 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .182/.268/.303 | .121 | .290 | 12 | 4 | 39% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .151/.229/.271 | .120 | .228 | 15 | 2 | 39% | 6% | 31 | -0.7 |
|
✕Adam Weisenburger 2014 · AA |
25 | 43 | 40 | 41→30 | 45 | .208/.285/.299 | .091 | .281 | 7 | 4 | 27% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .217/.296/.306 | .089 | .280 | 6 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .212/.296/.290 | .078 | .266 | 5 | 2 | 20% | 8% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Edgar Cabral 2021 · A |
25 | 42 | 43→40 | 46→30 | 42 | .209/.265/.315 | .107 | .284 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .200/.266/.293 | .093 | .314 | 7 | 8 | 36% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .190/.269/.257 | .067 | .328 | 0 | 0 | 38% | 9% | 44 | -0.4 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A |
25 | 39 | 41→45 | 48→30 | 44 | .192/.259/.283 | .091 | .263 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .208/.276/.329 | .121 | .293 | 14 | 3 | 32% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .201/.273/.323 | .122 | .280 | 15 | 1 | 32% | 9% | 62 | -0.5 |
|
✕Adam Donachie 2009 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 41→30 | 46 | .197/.264/.301 | .104 | .263 | 12 | 3 | 29% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .188/.255/.282 | .094 | .263 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .169/.240/.257 | .088 | .234 | 9 | 0 | 30% | 8% | 33 | -1.3 |
|
✕D' Vontrey Richardson 2013 · A |
25 | 47→40 | 39→40 | 44→50 | 39 | .221/.271/.316 | .095 | .316 | 6 | 10 | 30% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .240/.281/.330 | .090 | .317 | 6 | 16 | 25% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .245/.284/.333 | .088 | .317 | 6 | 21 | 24% | 4% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Javi Herrera 2006 · AA |
25 | 43 | 42→40 | 43→45 | 38 | .210/.263/.314 | .104 | .278 | 9 | 7 | 27% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .214/.282/.308 | .094 | .270 | 8 | 6 | 23% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .200/.294/.282 | .082 | .251 | 8 | 5 | 22% | 9% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jan Vázquez 2016 · AA |
25 | 41 | 43→40 | 43→45 | 40 | .202/.270/.306 | .105 | .290 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .219/.292/.313 | .094 | .295 | 8 | 9 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .217/.296/.306 | .089 | .289 | 8 | 7 | 26% | 7% | 67 | -0.2 |
|
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2018 · A |
25 | 41→37 | 47→50 | 46→50 | 37 | .207/.268/.345 | .139 | .293 | 15 | 11 | 34% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .221/.296/.379 | .158 | .309 | 19 | 8 | 33% | 8% | 90 | +1.0 | .215/.315/.403 | .187 | .284 | 26 | 2 | 32% | 11% | 106 | +0.8 |
|
✕Donny Sands 2021 · A |
25 | 41 | 38→45 | 45→40 | 39 | .198/.251/.278 | .080 | .282 | 5 | 5 | 30% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .231/.288/.361 | .130 | .278 | 15 | 4 | 22% | 7% | 81 | +0.4 | .228/.289/.352 | .124 | .275 | 14 | 2 | 22% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA |
25 | 40 | 39→45 | 39→45 | 45 | .193/.271/.272 | .079 | .282 | 7 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .213/.304/.343 | .130 | .284 | 14 | 8 | 28% | 10% | 84 | +0.6 | .221/.324/.370 | .149 | .286 | 16 | 11 | 27% | 12% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕D.K. Carey 2017 · A |
25 | 38→37 | 41→40 | 40→45 | 46 | .190/.262/.285 | .095 | .252 | 9 | 7 | 27% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .193/.269/.283 | .090 | .287 | 7 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 53 | -1.5 | .166/.254/.235 | .069 | .266 | 4 | 2 | 36% | 10% | 33 | -1.2 |
|
✕Dusty Brown 2007 · AA |
25 | 42 | 43→45 | 44→30 | 43 | .208/.262/.315 | .107 | .268 | 11 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .224/.282/.343 | .119 | .299 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .229/.292/.341 | .112 | .309 | 12 | 0 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Drew Biery 2011 · A |
25 | 41→39 | 45 | 43→45 | 41 | .211/.268/.329 | .119 | .279 | 14 | 8 | 29% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .216/.270/.340 | .124 | .287 | 14 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .206/.248/.343 | .136 | .256 | 21 | 0 | 28% | 5% | 57 | -0.2 |
|
✕Michael Papierski 2021 · A |
25 | 38→41 | 39→40 | 39→40 | 49 | .185/.275/.265 | .080 | .259 | 8 | 5 | 30% | 10% | 52 | -1.6 | .202/.289/.301 | .099 | .269 | 10 | 3 | 27% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .198/.288/.298 | .100 | .256 | 11 | 0 | 25% | 10% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→40 | 44→45 | 43→45 | 48 | .192/.276/.305 | .113 | .261 | 12 | 6 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .193/.276/.302 | .109 | .277 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .109/.220/.196 | .087 | .164 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 9% | 11 | -1.0 |