Connor Dykstra — OGILVIE

Connor DykstraC Inland Empire 66ers

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION158 act + 105 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .288 / .274

PA105

HR1

K%34

BB%8

BABIP289

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	232	193	32	7	1	4	16	79	23	3	0	166	306	275	581	109	255	34	7	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	A	SEA	—	158	128	21	3	1	0	13	67	15	2	1	164	314	203	517	39	333	42	8	242	43	-10	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.3
YTD	25	A	SEA	—	158	122	27	4	1	0	19	50	15	2	1	221	391	270	662	49	365	32	12	322	105	+1	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.8
ROS	25	A	SEA	0%	105	91	17	3	1	1	8	36	5	2	0	186	288	274	561	88	281	34	8	254	53	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB	SEA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		279	—	—	217	24	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	25	A	SEA	—	158	129	21	3	1	0	13	67	15	2	1	163	314	202	516	39	328	42	8	242	43	-10	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.3
TOT	25	A	SEA	—	263	219	38	6	2	1	21	103	20	4	1	173	303	233	536	59	313	39	8	247	47	-16	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	SEA	30%	245	215	39	7	1	3	18	82	10	3	1	181	276	265	541	84	281	33	7	260	57	-12	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.0
2028	27	MLB	SEA	42%	303	266	50	9	1	4	23	99	11	4	1	188	280	274	554	86	282	33	8	265	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.1
2029	28	MLB	SEA	48%	340	298	58	11	2	5	27	110	12	4	1	195	288	295	583	101	282	32	8	267	63	-14	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.1
2027	26	MLB	SEA	30%	74	65	12	2	0	1	6	25	3	1	0	185	284	262	545	77	279	34	8	229	33	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	SEA	42%	126	110	22	4	1	2	10	41	5	2	0	200	296	309	605	109	280	33	8	235	38	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2029	28	MLB	SEA	48%	162	142	27	5	1	2	13	52	6	2	1	190	286	282	567	92	280	32	8	238	41	-11	+0	-0	+3	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	362	318	61	11	2	5	29	118	14	5	1	192	289	286	575	94	284	33	8	235	38	-25	+1	-0	+6	+10	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	110	20	4	9	52	212	25	9	2	193	289	289	578	96	285	33	8	235	38	-45	+1	-1	+12	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	1225	1063	196	37	6	17	92	406	61	16	3	184	287	278	565	94	277	33	8	262	59	-57	+2	-1	+22	+35	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	104	20	3	9	49	215	32	8	2	184	287	278	565	94	277	33	8	262	59	-30	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	104	+1	+1	—	—	+7	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	552	7	8	190	277	283	+10	+8	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	9	9	190	277	283	+11.9	+9.6	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Dykstra (OGILVIE)	25	25	30	40	35	173/303/233	59	313	1	4	39%	8%	47	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	39	41→40	44→45	42	192/253/287	94	265	8	6	30%	6%	47	-1.9	193/247/294	101	286	10	6	34%	6%	46	-2.0	150/200/249	98	218	12	0	36%	5%	11	-1.4
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/246/256	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	35	-2.8	212/283/267	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	54	-1.4	214/294/251	37	301	0	4	26%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	48	192/273/255	63	265	4	6	27%	9%	48	-1.9	220/287/306	86	274	6	8	20%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/315	88	275	6	8	19%	7%	68	-0.2
✕David Masters 2018 · A	25	34→36	39→45	39→40	42	174/233/250	76	234	7	3	28%	6%	29	-3.2	201/268/315	114	280	12	3	31%	7%	61	-1.0	194/263/331	137	266	18	1	33%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2021 · A	25	38	40	41→30	40	181/273/270	89	290	7	5	37%	8%	53	-1.5	180/265/296	116	289	12	4	39%	7%	56	-1.3	146/222/257	111	228	13	2	40%	6%	25	-0.8
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	38	40	40	40	187/261/280	94	277	7	4	33%	7%	50	-1.8	192/262/285	93	308	8	7	37%	7%	51	-1.7	123/204/184	61	206	5	0	40%	8%	-2	-1.0
✕D.K. Carey 2017 · A	25	38→36	41→40	39→45	46	188/260/281	93	256	9	7	29%	8%	49	-1.8	192/268/279	87	293	7	6	34%	9%	52	-1.6	155/246/216	62	256	3	2	37%	10%	24	-1.5
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Robbie Shields 2013 · A	25	42→36	39→40	47→45	44	205/260/294	89	264	6	8	24%	6%	51	-1.7	196/249/271	75	276	4	7	28%	6%	40	-2.4	175/225/238	62	250	2	5	29%	6%	17	-2.4
✕Stuart Levy 2019 · A	26	36	38→40	44→40	38	175/245/249	74	270	6	5	35%	6%	34	-2.8	191/251/282	91	306	8	7	38%	6%	45	-2.1	149/202/237	88	245	9	3	41%	6%	9	-0.9
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2016 · A	25	40	39→30	44→50	45	194/254/274	80	246	6	5	23%	7%	43	-2.2	210/264/270	60	256	5	3	19%	7%	46	-2.0	217/265/265	48	254	6	0	17%	6%	43	-0.8
✕Matt McLaughlin 2021 · A	25	43→39	36→30	44→45	45	201/268/266	65	283	3	10	28%	8%	47	-1.9	198/260/278	80	265	6	7	26%	6%	48	-1.9	174/236/237	64	227	5	3	25%	6%	24	-1.9
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA	25	40	40→45	40→45	44	192/269/276	84	279	8	5	32%	8%	51	-1.7	218/306/353	135	287	14	8	27%	10%	88	+0.9	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Madison Stokes 2021 · A	25	38→35	42→40	40	34	190/232/286	96	282	10	4	36%	4%	37	-2.6	182/244/283	101	296	9	7	39%	7%	43	-2.2	165/240/264	98	269	8	7	39%	8%	33	-1.6
✕Donny Sands 2021 · A	25	41	38→45	45→40	39	196/246/280	84	278	5	5	30%	6%	42	-2.3	231/288/359	128	280	14	4	22%	7%	80	+0.4	227/287/347	121	276	14	2	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jon Townsend 2010 · A	25	41	41→40	47→50	38	203/256/295	92	282	9	9	31%	5%	50	-1.8	220/275/322	102	330	11	9	34%	6%	65	-0.7	224/281/322	98	341	11	9	35%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	41→32	43→40	46→50	37	199/262/305	106	309	11	11	37%	6%	56	-1.3	205/280/293	88	338	7	15	38%	8%	60	-1.0	202/285/275	73	344	5	17	38%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4