Connor Dykstra — OGILVIE

Connor DykstraC Inland Empire 66ers

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs A K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION251 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .333 / .143

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP282

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	104	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	193	30	8	1	2	16	82	23	3	0	155	297	238	536	83	248	35	7	247	53	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.7
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	193	30	8	1	2	16	82	23	3	0	155	297	238	536	83	257	35	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	232	185	38	11	2	2	22	64	23	3	0	205	358	319	677	114	303	28	9	321	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	191	30	8	1	2	16	82	23	3	0	157	297	241	538	84	248	35	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	232	191	30	8	1	2	16	82	23	3	0	157	297	241	538	84	248	35	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A MLE	SEA	—	251	205	37	5	1	3	21	100	21	3	3	180	320	259	578	78	321	40	8	271	70	-9	-1	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A RAW	SEA	—	251	196	48	7	2	4	30	75	21	3	3	245	401	362	763	117	364	30	12	353	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	A MLE	SEA	0%	9	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	143	333	143	476		284	33	11	265	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	A MLE	SEA	—	260	212	38	5	1	3	22	103	22	3	3	179	320	255	575	75	318	40	8	271	69	-9	-1	+0	+5	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	30%	249	217	42	8	1	4	19	82	11	3	1	194	291	295	586	101	286	33	8	272	70	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	42%	306	266	53	10	2	5	24	98	13	4	2	199	297	308	605	109	286	32	8	276	73	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	342	297	60	11	2	6	28	109	14	4	2	202	301	313	614	111	286	32	8	278	74	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	49%	358	311	62	11	2	6	29	114	15	4	2	199	299	305	604	106	285	32	8	277	73	-11	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	SEA	50%	368	320	63	11	2	6	30	118	15	4	2	197	296	300	596	103	284	32	8	274	72	-12	+0	-2	+7	+8	0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	30%	75	66	12	2	0	1	6	25	3	1	0	182	280	258	538	76	283	33	8	236	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	42%	127	110	22	4	1	2	10	41	6	2	1	200	302	309	611	109	284	32	8	242	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	163	142	28	5	1	3	13	52	7	2	1	197	296	310	606	113	283	32	8	245	74	-5	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	49%	176	153	30	5	1	3	14	56	7	2	1	196	293	301	594	105	283	32	8	245	73	-6	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	SEA	50%	185	160	32	6	1	3	15	59	8	2	1	200	301	306	607	106	281	32	8	242	72	-6	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	726	631	124	22	4	12	58	233	31	9	4	197	296	301	597	105	287	32	8	243	70	-24	+0	-2	+13	+16	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	112	20	4	11	52	209	28	8	4	198	298	306	604	108	289	32	8	243	70	-21	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1864	1611	311	59	10	29	147	606	92	22	9	193	297	296	593	103	286	33	8	272	70	-53	+0	-4	+29	+35	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	108	21	3	10	51	211	32	8	3	192	296	294	590	101	285	32	8	272	70	-21	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	919	14	12	195	290	295	+16	+12	1.0	1.0
/162	664	10	8	+11.9	+8.7	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Dykstra (OGILVIE)	25	25	30	40	35	182/291/265	83	284	2	3	34%	8%	66	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	40	41→40	44→45	42	196/258/292	96	269	8	6	29%	7%	56	-1.9	194/248/291	97	281	9	6	32%	6%	52	-2.2	151/202/238	87	213	10	0	34%	5%	19	-1.4
✕George Soto 2011 · A	25	34	36→40	44→45	40	169/238/230	61	247	5	8	32%	6%	35	-3.4	190/261/281	91	262	7	8	28%	8%	55	-2.0	163/239/259	97	213	9	7	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/247/257	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	43	-2.8	213/282/268	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	59	-1.6	217/294/253	36	302	0	4	26%	10%	58	-0.6
✕Donny Sands 2021 · A	25	41	38→45	45→40	40	197/249/279	82	279	5	5	30%	6%	49	-2.4	228/286/347	119	277	13	4	22%	7%	79	-0.2	224/286/336	112	273	12	2	22%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Chris Denove 2008 · A	25	40	38→40	47→40	42	196/254/274	78	267	6	5	28%	6%	51	-2.3	232/289/320	88	288	5	4	20%	6%	74	-0.6	245/303/334	88	297	6	3	18%	6%	79	-0.1
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	41→45	48→30	43	190/254/280	91	265	9	6	31%	7%	52	-2.2	214/281/329	115	298	12	3	30%	8%	73	-0.6	208/278/322	114	287	13	1	30%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	41	36→40	43→45	47	193/272/257	64	268	4	6	28%	8%	54	-2.0	218/284/303	85	271	6	8	20%	7%	68	-1.0	224/288/309	84	270	6	8	18%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA	25	40	39→45	40→45	44	192/269/271	79	282	7	5	32%	8%	56	-1.9	217/307/343	126	285	13	8	26%	10%	87	+0.4	222/324/360	138	289	14	11	26%	12%	95	+0.5
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2021 · A	25	38	40	41→30	41	182/275/274	92	289	7	5	36%	8%	60	-1.6	181/266/293	112	287	11	4	38%	7%	61	-1.5	149/227/259	110	227	12	2	38%	6%	35	-0.7
✕Greg Thissen 2006 · A	25	39	43→45	40→45	39	196/245/305	109	263	11	5	30%	5%	54	-2.0	204/270/297	93	270	8	7	26%	8%	61	-1.5	197/274/279	82	258	7	7	25%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2016 · A	25	40	38→30	44→50	45	195/252/270	76	246	5	5	23%	6%	49	-2.4	213/266/271	58	259	4	3	18%	7%	53	-2.1	224/272/272	48	261	5	0	16%	6%	54	-0.7
✕D.K. Carey 2017 · A	25	38	41→40	39→45	47	190/266/285	94	256	9	7	28%	9%	57	-1.8	196/272/287	91	294	7	6	33%	9%	60	-1.6	167/256/237	70	267	4	2	36%	10%	41	-1.2
✕Austin Rei 2018 · A	24	37	39→40	37→40	39	179/255/268	89	273	6	4	34%	7%	51	-2.3	192/266/285	93	283	7	5	32%	7%	58	-1.7	179/259/266	87	256	8	2	31%	8%	49	-0.8
✕David Masters 2018 · A	25	36→37	40→45	40	42	180/239/263	83	237	8	3	27%	6%	42	-2.9	203/270/318	115	280	13	3	30%	7%	67	-1.1	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Andy Leer 2013 · A	25	34	37→30	39→45	39	167/237/233	65	272	5	5	38%	8%	35	-3.4	178/239/264	86	295	7	8	39%	7%	42	-2.9	139/189/223	84	228	8	7	41%	5%	13	-2.0
✕D' Vontrey Richardson 2013 · A	25	47→39	39→40	44→50	39	223/271/317	93	319	5	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	241/282/329	88	315	5	17	24%	5%	72	-0.7	248/287/332	84	319	5	21	23%	4%	72	-0.3
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2007 · AA	24	37	38→40	43→40	39	181/239/262	81	264	5	4	32%	6%	42	-2.9	197/247/275	78	277	6	4	29%	5%	47	-2.5	210/276/290	80	290	6	0	28%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Stuart Levy 2019 · A	26	36	38→40	44→40	38	176/245/251	75	269	7	5	35%	6%	42	-2.9	191/252/281	90	304	8	7	37%	6%	51	-2.2	147/204/228	81	243	8	3	41%	6%	18	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps