Jared Southard

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	38	0	53	4.27	4.13	20.1%	11.8%	—	K 15.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.94
2025	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	66	3.68	3.46	25.7%	7.4%	—	K 21.6% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.00
2026	25	AAALAA	55	2	74	5.84	3.67	20.1%	9.9%	—	K 17.2% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	47	0	49	4.48	4.48	18.6%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBLAA	27	0	28	4.49	4.50	19.1%	8.9%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBLAA	38	0	40	4.54	4.57	19.3%	9.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJosh Zeid (age 26) · Carlos Gonzalez (age 26) · Cole Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	8	0	8	51	4	8	2	0%	1.0	5.8%	18.5%	-12.7%	5.7%	12.38	8.10	—
2022	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	8	0	8	51	4	8	2	0%	1.0	7.8%	15.7%	-7.8%	3.9%	12.38	8.35	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	51	240	62	30	3	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	1.7%	5.29	4.22	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	51	240	62	30	3	0%	1.3	25.8%	12.5%	13.3%	1.2%	5.29	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.2%	2.6%	2.7%	4.27	4.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.2%	2.6%	2.7%	4.27	4.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	2.2%	4.27	4.13	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	21.6%	7.1%	14.6%	3.3%	3.68	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	21.6%	7.1%	14.6%	3.3%	3.68	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	25.7%	7.4%	18.4%	2.9%	3.68	3.46	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	55	2	74	344	69	34	6	4%	1.3	17.2%	8.9%	8.4%	1.9%	5.84	3.82	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	55	2	74	344	69	34	6	4%	1.3	17.2%	8.9%	8.4%	1.9%	5.84	3.82	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	55	2	74	344	69	34	6	4%	1.3	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	1.7%	5.84	3.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	47	0	49	207	39	18	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.8%	9.9%	2.7%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	66	277	53	25	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.9%	10.2%	2.7%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	61	0	64	269	52	24	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	27	0	28	118	23	11	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.9%	10.2%	2.7%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	38	0	40	169	33	15	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	68	286	55	26	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.16	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	77	24	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.52	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		188	2	252	1136	204	125	29	1%	1.3	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.5%	5.04	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	2	200	903	162	99	23	1%	1.3	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.5%	5.04	4.37	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Southard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.6%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.53	19.2%	10.2%	129	+0.05	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	91
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	90
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	90
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	89
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	89
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	89
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	89
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	89
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	88
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	88
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	88
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	88
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Sean Donatello R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	17.8%	7.4%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	88
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	88
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	87
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.0%	8.9%	1.07	4.51
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*