Landon Sims

P Reno Aces

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 227 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #1019

ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	41	1	59	3.07	2.25	33.1%	10.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.35
2025	24	AAARI	49	0	52	3.63	2.97	24.5%	11.6%	—	K 19.8% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.47
2026	25	MIX2 levels	49	0	58	4.78	4.71	17.8%	12.3%	—	K 14.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	67	0	70	5.21	5.21	16.5%	12.8%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBARI	28	0	29	5.14	5.15	17.2%	12.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBARI	40	0	42	5.14	5.18	17.5%	12.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · D.J. Carrasco (age 26) · Roman Phansalkar (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%16.5%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	25	109	28	12	3	87%	1.6	19.3%	12.9%	6.3%	5.3%	5.47	6.04	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	25	109	28	12	3	87%	1.6	25.7%	11.0%	14.7%	2.8%	5.47	3.87	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	59	257	85	27	3	2%	1.4	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	1.5%	3.07	3.35	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	59	257	85	27	3	2%	1.4	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	1.5%	3.07	3.35	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	59	257	85	27	3	2%	1.4	33.1%	10.5%	22.6%	1.2%	3.07	2.25	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	49	0	52	233	57	27	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	0.8%	3.63	3.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	49	0	52	233	57	27	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	0.8%	3.63	3.47	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	49	0	52	233	57	27	2	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	0.9%	3.63	2.97	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	58	253	45	31	7	0%	1.2	14.8%	12.0%	2.8%	3.2%	4.78	5.15	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	58	253	45	31	7	0%	1.2	14.8%	12.0%	2.8%	3.2%	4.78	5.15	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	58	253	45	31	7	0%	1.2	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	67	0	70	296	49	38	8	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.8%	3.7%	2.7%	5.21	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	66	0	69	291	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	2.8%	5.14	5.15	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	64	0	67	282	50	35	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.14	5.18	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	61	0	64	270	48	34	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	21	15	3	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	2.8%	5.14	5.15	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	31	22	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.14	5.18	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	45	0	47	198	35	25	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	118	497	87	62	15	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.0%	5.16	4.82	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	105	25	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.0%	5.16	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		154	14	194	852	169	106	20	9%	1.3	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	2.3%	4.04	4.26	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	14	200	880	174	109	20	9%	1.3	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	2.3%	4.04	4.26	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Landon Sims (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	16.5%	12.8%	2.7%	—	5.20	17.5%	5.0%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	90
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	88
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	88
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	87
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	86
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	85
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	85
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	84
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Todd Peterson R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	14.7%	11.2%	2.1%	.289	5.37	12.8%	-2.3%	21	+0.92	4.45	175	84
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	84
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	83
Daniel Webb R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	15.7%	13.4%	2.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	126	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Rene Coss R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	16.7%	13.9%	1.2%	.250	4.79	13.0%	2.1%	82	+0.68	3.84	123	83
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.2%	12.6%	1.11	5.17
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*