Samuel Perez

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	AMIN	35	1	63	3.30	2.84	24.6%	5.9%	—	K 18.2% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.87
2024	24	MIX2 levels	38	1	72	2.49	2.55	27.8%	8.1%	—	K 20.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.36
2025	25	A+MIN	28	0	44	2.05	2.74	19.1%	9.8%	—	K 14.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.29
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	57	0	60	5.19	5.19	15.7%	12.1%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBMIN	20	0	21	5.15	5.19	16.4%	11.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBMIN	29	0	30	5.18	5.25	16.7%	11.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

CompsStephen Peterson (age 27) · Brian Moran (age 26) · Michael Johnson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%15.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	13	0	31	127	32	3	0	0%	2.4	17.1%	3.0%	14.2%	0.0%	1.44	2.03	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	13	0	31	127	32	3	0	0%	2.4	25.2%	2.4%	22.8%	0.0%	1.44	1.34	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	21	0	29	109	38	4	1	0%	1.4	23.7%	4.6%	19.1%	1.3%	1.26	2.38	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	21	0	29	109	38	4	1	0%	1.4	34.9%	3.7%	31.2%	0.9%	1.26	1.32	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	13	1	37	146	39	5	1	8%	2.9	18.2%	4.3%	13.9%	1.0%	1.45	2.64	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	13	1	37	146	39	5	1	8%	2.9	26.7%	3.4%	23.3%	0.7%	1.45	1.76	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	53	214	46	18	6	3%	1.8	16.2%	9.7%	6.5%	3.6%	3.08	4.91	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	53	214	46	18	6	3%	1.8	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.8%	3.08	3.86	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	35	1	63	256	63	15	5	3%	1.8	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	2.6%	3.30	3.87	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	35	1	63	256	63	15	5	3%	1.8	24.6%	5.9%	18.8%	2.0%	3.30	2.84	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	72	295	82	24	4	3%	1.9	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	1.5%	2.49	3.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	72	295	82	24	4	3%	1.9	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	1.5%	2.49	3.36	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	72	295	82	24	4	3%	1.9	27.8%	8.1%	19.7%	1.4%	2.49	2.55	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	44	183	35	18	0	0%	1.6	14.7%	11.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.05	3.29	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	44	183	35	18	0	0%	1.6	14.7%	11.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.05	3.29	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	44	183	35	18	0	0%	1.6	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	0.0%	2.05	2.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	57	0	60	253	40	31	7	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.1%	3.7%	2.8%	5.19	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	244	40	29	7	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.9%	4.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.19	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	55	233	39	28	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.0%	5.18	5.25	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	20	0	21	89	15	11	3	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.9%	4.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.19	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	21	15	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.0%	5.18	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	36	26	6	0%	1.1	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.17	4.85	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	101	23	0%	1.1	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.17	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		178	4	329	1330	243	102	21	2%	1.8	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	1.6%	2.35	3.41	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	2	200	809	148	62	13	2%	1.8	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	1.6%	2.35	3.41	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	15.7%	12.1%	2.8%	—	5.22	16.5%	4.6%	113	+0.03	—	—	—
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	87
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	83
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	82
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	82
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	82
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	81
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	81
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	81
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	80
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	80
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	80
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	80
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	80
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	79
Randy Labaut L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	27	SU	4.80	16.0%	12.9%	2.6%	.276	5.15	22.2%	10.9%	37	+0.35	1.91	302	79
Juan Martinez L 2019 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	14.4%	9.2%	3.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	273	78
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	427	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.2%	12.0%	1.12	5.17
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*