Samuel Perez
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'11" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%11.3%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 13 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 17.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 1.44 | 2.03 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Angels | 21 | 0 | 29 | 109 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 23.7% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 1.26 | 2.38 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 13 | 1 | 37 | 146 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 18.2% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 1.45 | 2.67 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 30 | 1 | 53 | 214 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 3.08 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 35 | 1 | 63 | 256 | 63 | 15 | 5 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 3.30 | 3.86 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 38 | 1 | 72 | 295 | 82 | 24 | 4 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 2.49 | 3.36 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 44 | 183 | 35 | 18 | 0 | 14.7% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 2.05 | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 4 | 329 | 1330 | 243 | 102 | 21 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.41 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 2 | 200 | 809 | 148 | 62 | 13 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.41 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.64 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 131 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 89 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 87 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 86 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 85 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 85 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 84 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 84 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 83 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 83 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 82 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 82 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 82 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 82 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 82 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 82 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.