Tommy Parsons prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tommy Parsons P Memphis Redbirds

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%17.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	13	9	57	232	43	10	7	69%	4.4	12.6%	5.4%	7.2%	4.2%	3.00	5.04	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	13	9	57	232	43	10	7	69%	4.4	18.5%	4.3%	14.2%	3.0%	3.00	3.71	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	166	666	148	27	30	100%	6.1	17.4%	4.4%	13.0%	4.8%	3.53	4.82	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	166	666	148	27	30	100%	6.1	22.2%	4.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.53	4.16	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	24	9	74	317	70	24	19	38%	3.1	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	7.0%	5.86	6.28	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	24	9	74	317	70	24	19	38%	3.1	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	6.0%	5.86	5.53	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	38	17	136	563	110	57	29	45%	3.6	17.2%	10.6%	6.6%	5.4%	4.31	5.96	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	38	17	136	563	110	57	29	45%	3.6	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	5.2%	4.31	5.52	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	14	74	344	53	31	22	74%	3.9	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	7.4%	7.30	7.05	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	14	74	344	53	31	22	74%	3.9	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	7.4%	7.30	7.05	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	19	14	74	344	53	31	22	74%	3.9	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	6.4%	7.30	6.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	47	198	34	18	7	100%	6.7	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	3.6%	5.07	5.15	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	43	183	32	17	7	100%	6.2	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	3.8%	5.19	5.31	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	17	72	12	6	3	100%	5.7	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	3.6%	5.07	5.15	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	24	101	18	10	4	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	3.8%	5.19	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	41	173	30	16	6	100%	6.8	17.4%	9.2%	8.1%	3.7%	5.14	4.86	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	146	78	29	100%	6.7	17.4%	9.2%	8.1%	3.7%	5.14	4.86	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		121	76	506	2122	349	155	120	63%	4.2	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	5.6%	4.57	5.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	30	200	839	138	61	47	63%	4.2	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	5.6%	4.57	5.73	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Parsons (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	17.2%	8.6%	3.4%	—	5.23	17.4%	8.2%	90	+0.21	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	84
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	79
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	78
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	75
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	75
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	73
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	73
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	70
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	69
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	69
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	68
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	68
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	68
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	67
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	67
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.3%	9.0%	1.40	5.09
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95