Joel Condreay
Joel Condreay
P
Spokane Indians
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION7 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.7%
IP8
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 10 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 28.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 2.80 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 20 | 0 | 22 | 85 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 1.25 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 13 | 0 | 14 | 68 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 18.1% | 23.7% | 3.4% | 6.59 | 6.41 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | COL | 8 | — | 8 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 195 | 42 | 31 | 5 | 21.6% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.63 | 4.78 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 188 | 139 | 22 | 21.6% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.63 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Condreay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 20 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 91 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 77 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 76 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 75 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 402 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 75 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 74 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.