Dalton Roach

P Birmingham Barons

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	45	0	70	4.50	5.06	23.9%	9.4%	—	K 20.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.68
2024	28	MIX3 levels	28	0	32	2.78	3.19	26.9%	9.0%	—	K 21.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.10
2025	29	MIX2 levels	36	3	60	3.60	4.05	21.3%	8.1%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	31	MLBCWS	62	0	65	4.91	4.91	17.9%	9.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBCWS	18	0	19	4.99	5.08	18.0%	10.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBCWS	27	0	28	5.13	5.27	17.9%	10.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Felipe Arredondo (age 30) · Angel Castro (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%17.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	6	6	34	144	34	15	0	100%	5.7	17.5%	12.3%	5.2%	0.0%	3.71	3.18	—
2019	23	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	6	6	34	144	34	15	0	100%	5.7	23.6%	10.4%	13.2%	0.0%	3.71	2.42	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	24	19	115	516	119	44	27	79%	4.8	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	6.3%	5.65	6.19	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	24	19	115	516	119	44	27	79%	4.8	23.1%	8.5%	14.5%	5.2%	5.65	5.24	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	11	100	413	96	25	20	27%	2.4	18.9%	6.2%	12.7%	5.5%	4.24	5.32	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	11	100	413	96	25	20	27%	2.4	23.2%	6.1%	17.2%	4.8%	4.24	4.53	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	70	297	71	28	15	0%	1.6	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	5.8%	4.50	5.68	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	70	297	71	28	15	0%	1.6	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	5.1%	4.50	5.06	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	32	134	36	12	3	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.2%	2.78	4.10	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	32	134	36	12	3	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.2%	2.78	4.10	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	32	134	36	12	3	0%	1.2	26.9%	9.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.78	3.19	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	60	258	55	21	8	8%	1.7	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	3.4%	3.60	4.61	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	60	258	55	21	8	8%	1.7	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	3.4%	3.60	4.61	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	60	258	55	21	8	8%	1.7	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	3.1%	3.60	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CWS	62	0	65	274	49	27	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.7%	8.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	254	46	25	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	CWS	53	0	55	233	42	24	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.6%	5.13	5.27	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	CWS	18	0	19	80	14	8	3	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	CWS	27	0	28	118	21	12	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.6%	5.13	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	199	36	20	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.3%	7.7%	3.5%	5.07	4.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	85	30	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.3%	7.7%	3.5%	5.07	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		180	39	411	1762	334	153	86	22%	2.3	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	4.9%	4.43	5.27	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	19	200	858	163	74	42	22%	2.3	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	4.9%	4.43	5.27	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Roach (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	17.9%	9.7%	3.1%	—	5.17	18.0%	7.8%	115	+0.26	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	85
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	80
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	80
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	77
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	76
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	76
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	75
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	75
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	74
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	74
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	73
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	73
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	73
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	71
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	18.0%	10.0%	1.30	5.00
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*