Dalton Roach
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.01
FIP5.01
K%18.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.5% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 3.18 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 2.42 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 19 | 115 | 516 | 119 | 44 | 27 | 79% | 4.8 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.65 | 6.23 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 19 | 115 | 516 | 119 | 44 | 27 | 79% | 4.8 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 5.2% | 5.65 | 5.24 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 11 | 100 | 413 | 96 | 25 | 20 | 27% | 2.4 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 4.24 | 5.13 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 11 | 100 | 413 | 96 | 25 | 20 | 27% | 2.4 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 4.8% | 4.24 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 71 | 28 | 15 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 4.50 | 5.87 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 71 | 28 | 15 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 5.1% | 4.50 | 5.06 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 2.78 | 4.22 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 2.2% | 2.78 | 3.19 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 3 | 60 | 258 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 8% | 1.7 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 3.60 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 3 | 60 | 258 | 55 | 21 | 8 | 8% | 1.7 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 3.60 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 49 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 45 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 39 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 4.86 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 84 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 5.14 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 180 | 39 | 411 | 1762 | 336 | 158 | 86 | 22% | 2.3 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.43 | 5.30 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 19 | 200 | 858 | 164 | 77 | 42 | 22% | 2.3 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.43 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Roach (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | — | 5.22 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 122 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 88 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 87 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 85 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 83 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 83 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 78 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 77 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 76 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 75 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 75 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 74 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 5.08 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |