Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 1.64 | 3.87 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 1.64 | 3.83 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 37 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 3.22 | 3.35 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 37 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 0.4% | 3.22 | 2.77 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 250 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.76 | 5.23 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 250 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 5.76 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 67 | 291 | 91 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17.9% | 3.8% | 3.48 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 67 | 291 | 91 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.3% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 2.7% | 3.48 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 76 | 323 | 93 | 28 | 12 | 4% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 3.93 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 76 | 323 | 93 | 28 | 12 | 4% | 1.5 | 28.8% | 8.7% | 20.1% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 63 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 5.47 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 63 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 17.5% | 4.6% | 5.47 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 75 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 75 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 3.52 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 38 | 0 | 42 | 166 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 66 | 265 | 54 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 3.80 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 66 | 277 | 54 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 19.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 51 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 46 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 49 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 332 | 0 | 362 | 1530 | 333 | 136 | 57 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 4.44 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 184 | 75 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 336 | 2 | 442 | 1897 | 422 | 179 | 58 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 191 | 81 | 26 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.89 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 173 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.02 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.45 | 3.57 | 224 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 78 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 77 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 1.35 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |