Nick Starr prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Starr P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	0	3	13	4	0	0	0%	0.8	30.8%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	2.70	0.50	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	0	3	13	4	0	0	0%	0.8	30.8%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	2.70	0.70	—
2019	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	8	0	11	58	13	8	2	0%	1.4	16.6%	16.3%	0.3%	3.8%	11.91	5.84	—
2019	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	8	0	11	58	13	8	2	0%	1.4	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	3.4%	11.91	5.22	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	173	60	13	11	0%	1.3	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	10.1%	5.12	7.51	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	39	173	60	13	11	0%	1.3	34.7%	7.5%	27.2%	6.4%	5.12	4.70	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	28	0	31	122	25	10	1	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	1.1%	2.05	3.43	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	28	0	31	122	25	10	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	0.8%	2.05	2.87	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	33	0	48	206	52	14	7	0%	1.5	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	4.2%	5.96	4.62	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	33	0	48	206	52	14	7	0%	1.5	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	4.2%	5.96	4.62	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	33	0	48	206	52	14	7	0%	1.5	25.2%	6.8%	18.4%	3.4%	5.96	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	25	0	26	112	25	10	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	8	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.14	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	72	24	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		102	0	132	572	121	50	30	0%	1.3	21.1%	8.8%	12.4%	5.2%	5.24	5.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	864	183	76	45	0%	1.3	21.1%	8.8%	12.4%	5.2%	5.24	5.27	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Starr (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.3%	8.5%	3.1%	—	4.52	22.0%	13.2%	26	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	93
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	85
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	84
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	84
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	81
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	80
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	22.2%	8.7%	1.22	4.40
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97