Troy Watson

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AAADET	36	15	75	7.53	6.18	21.8%	13.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.9% · FIP 6.91
2025	28	MIX2 levels	36	14	105	2.75	3.55	22.9%	8.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.20
2026	29	MIX3 levels	31	13	80	3.14	3.96	18.4%	8.8%	—	K 15.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	119	0	125	4.92	4.92	17.2%	8.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ50% MLB	31	MLBSEA	56	0	59	4.98	5.06	17.3%	8.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ65% MLB	32	MLBSEA	66	0	69	5.10	5.22	17.2%	9.2%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsChris Jakubauskas (age 30) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%17.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	9	6	27	102	20	8	1	67%	3.0	13.3%	9.8%	3.5%	1.4%	1.67	3.97	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	9	6	27	102	20	8	1	67%	3.0	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	1.0%	1.67	2.99	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	98	410	49	38	5	80%	4.9	8.9%	11.1%	-2.2%	1.5%	3.32	4.60	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	98	410	49	38	5	80%	4.9	12.0%	9.3%	2.7%	1.2%	3.32	3.93	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	7	29	122	39	10	0	44%	1.8	28.2%	5.8%	22.5%	0.0%	2.79	1.44	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	7	29	122	39	10	0	44%	1.8	32.0%	8.2%	23.8%	0.0%	2.79	1.44	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	275	54	35	4	0%	1.4	15.7%	14.4%	1.3%	2.0%	4.83	4.71	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	60	275	54	35	4	0%	1.4	19.6%	12.7%	6.9%	1.5%	4.83	3.92	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	18.7%	11.9%	6.9%	7.1%	7.53	6.91	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	18.7%	11.9%	6.9%	7.1%	7.53	6.91	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	5.1%	7.53	6.18	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	2.9%	2.75	4.20	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	2.9%	2.75	4.20	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.4%	2.75	3.55	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	13	80	331	61	29	8	42%	2.6	15.8%	7.2%	8.6%	3.0%	3.14	4.35	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	13	80	331	61	29	8	42%	2.6	15.8%	7.2%	8.6%	3.0%	3.14	4.35	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	13	80	331	61	29	8	42%	2.6	18.4%	8.8%	9.7%	2.4%	3.14	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	119	0	125	528	91	46	17	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	3.3%	4.92	4.92	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	111	0	116	491	85	44	17	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.5%	4.98	5.06	-0.7
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	102	0	108	454	78	42	17	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.10	5.22	-0.8
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	56	0	59	249	43	22	9	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.5%	4.98	5.06	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	66	0	69	291	50	27	11	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.10	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	0	128	541	93	49	19	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.05	4.77	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	76	30	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.05	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		192	72	477	2049	333	210	62	38%	2.5	16.3%	10.2%	6.0%	3.0%	3.87	4.68	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	30	200	860	140	88	26	38%	2.5	16.3%	10.2%	6.0%	3.0%	3.87	4.68	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	17.2%	8.6%	3.3%	—	5.14	17.3%	8.2%	224	+0.22	—	—	—
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	78
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	76
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Matt Palmer R 2009 · 4.58 FIP	30	SW	4.58	13.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.251	3.72	10.6%	0.5%	49	-0.86	2.98	183	71
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	69
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	69
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	69
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	377	68
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	67
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	67
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	66
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	66
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	66
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	116	17.3%	8.9%	1.35	5.00
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Steve Parris ('03)	3.8	94	14.4%	8.7%	1.36	4.75
Scott Olsen ('10)	3.6	120	16.6%	9.2%	1.34	4.85
Ray Phelps ('30-'36, 2 WAR*)	3.0	120	17.3%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.70*