Lazaro Estrada

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 28 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	22	22	98	3.29	2.87	28.0%	8.2%	—	K 22.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.64
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	20	105	5.93	4.32	23.5%	7.1%	0.7	K 19.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 5.10
2026	27	MIX3 levels	27	5	51	4.24	4.47	21.4%	11.0%	0.0	K 19.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	10	10	57	4.68	4.96	19.1%	8.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTOR	3	3	20	4.88	5.05	18.9%	9.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBTOR	5	5	28	5.05	5.21	18.6%	9.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%40

xwOBA vs31

FB Velo26

K%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsEddie Bonine (age 28) · Zach Stewart (age 28) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.68

FIP4.96

K%19.1%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

FB+1.6 (44%)

SL+0.6 (32%)

CU (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	14	14	70	279	87	12	4	100%	5.0	21.2%	5.4%	15.8%	2.0%	2.06	3.09	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	14	14	70	279	87	12	4	100%	5.0	31.2%	4.3%	26.9%	1.4%	2.06	1.87	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	20	88	28	8	2	29%	2.9	22.7%	11.0%	11.7%	3.4%	2.66	4.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	20	88	28	8	2	29%	2.9	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	2.3%	2.66	2.80	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	19	79	32	7	0	67%	2.1	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	0.0%	3.79	1.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	19	79	32	7	0	67%	2.1	40.5%	8.9%	31.6%	0.0%	3.79	0.84	—
2023	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	28	9	76	309	103	26	3	32%	2.7	24.7%	9.9%	14.7%	1.0%	2.83	2.82	—
2023	24	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	28	9	76	309	103	26	3	32%	2.7	33.3%	8.4%	24.9%	1.0%	2.83	1.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	98	403	113	33	8	100%	4.5	28.0%	8.2%	19.9%	2.0%	3.29	2.87	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	5.1%	5.93	5.10	-0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	5.1%	5.93	5.10	-0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	20	105	464	109	33	19	71%	3.7	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	4.1%	5.93	4.32	+0.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	5	51	210	45	23	7	19%	1.9	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	4.24	4.85	-0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	5	51	210	45	23	7	19%	1.9	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	4.24	4.85	-0.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	5	51	210	45	23	7	19%	1.9	21.4%	11.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.24	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	20	92	19	10	4	0%	2.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	4.3%	6.64	5.26	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	10	10	57	241	46	21	9	100%	5.7	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.68	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	230	43	21	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.7%	4.88	5.05	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	51	216	40	20	8	100%	5.7	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	3.9%	5.05	5.21	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	3	3	20	84	16	8	3	100%	6.7	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.7%	4.88	5.05	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	28	118	22	11	5	100%	5.6	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	3.9%	5.05	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	8	69	295	57	29	12	44%	3.8	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	4.0%	5.47	4.87	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		53	23	200	862	166	85	35	45%	3.8	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	4.0%	5.47	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		135	78	440	1832	400	152	53	58%	3.3	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	2.9%	3.75	3.89	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	35	200	833	182	69	24	58%	3.3	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	2.9%	3.75	3.89	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lazaro Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	19.1%	8.7%	3.6%	—	5.13	18.7%	9.6%	106	+0.17	—	—	—
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	72
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	70
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	68
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	68
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	66
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	66
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	66
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	65
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	65
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	64
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	64
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	64
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	64
Ryan Glynn R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	29	SW	5.23	15.7%	7.9%	4.5%	.234	5.98	18.3%	9.8%	17	+0.75	5.23	226	64
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	64
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	63
Christian Bergman R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	15.3%	5.6%	4.0%	.309	4.62	15.0%	9.1%	322	-0.12	3.99	521	63
Chris Bassitt R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	28	SW	3.83	17.5%	9.8%	1.7%	.313	3.80	21.7%	14.1%	336	-0.03	2.92	1,596	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	19.1%	9.3%	1.47	5.06
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*