Edgar Escobar prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Edgar Escobar P Springfield Cardinals

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	19	0	22	81	33	2	0	0%	1.2	27.7%	3.1%	24.6%	0.0%	1.21	1.15	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	19	0	22	81	33	2	0	0%	1.2	40.7%	2.5%	38.3%	0.0%	1.21	0.41	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	59	239	72	22	1	0%	1.5	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	0.6%	2.58	2.86	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	59	239	72	22	1	0%	1.5	30.1%	9.2%	20.9%	0.4%	2.58	2.00	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	0	41	177	53	15	12	0%	1.7	24.3%	9.3%	14.9%	8.2%	5.88	6.75	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	0	41	177	53	15	12	0%	1.7	29.9%	8.5%	21.5%	6.8%	5.88	5.40	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	28	20	124	556	98	50	23	71%	4.4	14.3%	9.9%	4.4%	4.6%	6.73	5.70	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	28	20	124	556	98	50	23	71%	4.4	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	4.1%	6.73	5.13	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	7	65	284	55	36	7	28%	2.6	15.7%	13.9%	1.7%	2.7%	4.82	5.05	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	7	65	284	55	36	7	28%	2.6	15.7%	13.9%	1.7%	2.7%	4.82	5.05	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	7	65	284	55	36	7	28%	2.6	19.4%	12.7%	6.7%	2.5%	4.82	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	3.0%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	STL	40	0	42	178	35	21	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.95	5.02	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	0	13	55	11	6	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.95	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	91	30	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		137	27	313	1337	244	139	50	20%	2.3	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	3.7%	5.04	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	17	200	855	156	89	32	20%	2.3	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	3.7%	5.04	4.91	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgar Escobar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.9%	11.6%	3.0%	—	5.02	19.9%	8.2%	42	+0.11	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	77
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	76
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	74
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	74
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	73
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	73
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	19.9%	11.6%	1.19	4.93
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19