Chavez Fernander prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chavez Fernander P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	14	5	39	146	39	8	0	36%	2.8	18.2%	6.8%	11.3%	0.0%	1.40	2.43	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	14	5	39	146	39	8	0	36%	2.8	26.7%	5.5%	21.2%	0.0%	1.40	1.70	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	59	247	56	26	6	9%	1.8	18.1%	11.7%	6.3%	2.9%	3.68	4.66	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	59	247	56	26	6	9%	1.8	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	2.4%	3.68	3.85	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	216	47	21	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	0.6%	4.53	3.38	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	216	47	21	1	0%	1.2	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	0.5%	4.53	2.74	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	36	176	28	22	6	0%	1.3	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	4.8%	7.32	5.92	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	36	176	28	22	6	0%	1.3	13.6%	10.6%	3.0%	4.8%	7.32	5.92	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	36	176	28	22	6	0%	1.3	15.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.4%	7.32	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	99	33	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		115	8	183	785	132	81	17	7%	1.6	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	2.1%	4.14	4.17	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	9	200	859	145	89	18	7%	1.6	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	2.1%	4.14	4.17	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chavez Fernander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.5%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.70	21.3%	11.5%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	79
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77