Cole Ayers

P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	45	0	64	3.64	2.51	31.3%	8.4%	—	K 23.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.58
2024	24	MIX2 levels	44	0	64	3.36	3.10	29.1%	9.7%	—	K 22.1% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.91
2025	25	MIX2 levels	32	1	39	4.42	4.13	19.4%	13.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYY	22	0	23	5.03	5.03	19.2%	12.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBNYY	8	0	8	5.01	5.05	19.5%	12.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Scott Proctor (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%19.2%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	13	0	19	89	17	11	2	0%	1.5	13.0%	15.4%	-2.5%	3.0%	5.68	5.58	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	13	0	19	89	17	11	2	0%	1.5	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	2.2%	5.68	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	275	86	23	5	0%	1.4	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.2%	3.64	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	64	275	86	23	5	0%	1.4	31.3%	8.4%	22.9%	1.8%	3.64	2.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.6%	3.36	3.91	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.6%	3.36	3.91	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	64	268	78	26	6	0%	1.5	29.1%	9.7%	19.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	15.2%	15.6%	-0.5%	2.3%	4.42	5.04	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	15.2%	15.6%	-0.5%	2.3%	4.42	5.04	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	39	175	34	23	3	3%	1.2	19.4%	13.1%	6.3%	1.7%	4.42	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYY	22	0	23	97	19	12	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.4%	6.8%	2.9%	5.03	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	21	0	22	93	18	11	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.0%	5.01	5.05	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.0%	5.01	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.01	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	97	24	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.01	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		134	1	186	807	162	94	20	1%	1.4	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	2.4%	3.91	4.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	866	174	101	21	1%	1.4	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	2.4%	3.91	4.22	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Ayers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	19.2%	12.4%	2.9%	—	5.05	19.5%	7.3%	22	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	89
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	88
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	88
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	88
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	85
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	84
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	84
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	82